Monica Singh

Highlights Rental market conditions across Canadas large urban centres remained tight despite lessening market pressures in some centres due to record level growth in supply outpacing strong demand. The average vacancy rate for purpose-built rental apartments1 rose to 2.2% in 2024 from 1.5% in 2023, remaining below the 10-year historical average of 2.7%. Average rent growth slowed, with rents for 2-bedroom units rising by 5.4%2, down from the record 8.0% in 2023. Rents increased by 23.5% when units turned over, which is close to 2023 rates. Rent hikes on turnover units accounted for more than 40% of the overall rent increase. Despite the slowdown in rent growth, renter affordability remained strained. The increase in rental stock was driven by newly completed, higher-priced units, which were unaffordable for many renters and primarily served higher-income households. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-reports-major-centres

From Scotiabank All Canadian provinces are poised for better growth in 2025, despite anticipating stronger policy headwinds in late 2025 and 2026 from both domestic and international fronts. Consumption is expected to accelerate over the next few quarters, driven by the Bank of Canadas rate cuts, which will alleviate household financial pressures, further supported by excess savings and fiscal stimulus. Residential investment is set to surge, fueled by lower financing costs and robust demand in an under-supplied market, driving economic expansion as we enter the new year. The rebound in interest rate-sensitive sectors, while beneficial for all provinces, is particularly promising for Ontario and British Columbia (B.C.), which have experienced notable contractions in housing activities. Policy uncertainty from the new U.S. administration poses a significant risk. Despite the lack of clarity on the path ahead, we have made some attempt to incorporate potential policy changes in our current forecast. Household spending is set to accelerate in 2025, driven by the Bank of Canadas rate cuts, elevated savings, and fiscal stimulus. Consumption held up solidly over the course of this year and has shown signs of picking up in the third quarter, surpassing expectations. Posting strong headline gains in the second half of this year, retail sales data highlights exceptional strength in the Atlantic provinces, although B.C. and Ontario experienced some soft patches. Despite the continued drag from ongoing mortgage resets, households should be able to manage higher mortgage payments by adapting saving and spending habits. As interest rates decline, this impact will also ease, paving the way for increased consumption. We anticipate a broad-based surge in household spending, fueled by stimulus cheques from Ontario and eventually B.C., as well as the federal government, GST/HST cuts, and mortgage rule changes as we move into 2025. This combination of factors sets the stage for a rebound in growth, with consumer confidence and spending power on the rise. Strong labour market conditions support consumption growth. After a period of cooling since the latter half of last year, employment growth stabilized and remained steady throughout 2024. However, employment gains have consistently lagged behind the rapid expansion of the labour force, driving up unemployment rates nationwide. This cooling trend is particularly evident in Quebec and Ontario, where employment growth slowed sharply, though recent signs of stabilization and recovery have begun to emerge. In Alberta, job gains have shown signs of weakening despite rapid population growth, following strong outperformance up until early this year. The Atlantic provinces have bucked the trend, with robust job gains outpacing strong labour force growth, indicating remarkable economic momentum. We anticipate that the worst of the unemployment rate deterioration is behind us and expect unemployment rates to stabilize around levels just above the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) over the next few quarters. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.the-provinces.scotiabank-s-provincial-outlook--december-17--2024-.html

Canadians increasingly aware of FHSA features and benefits. Homebuyers divided over how mortgage rate changes will affect their ability to buy a home in the next two years. 23% of parents are expected to use the FHSA to help their children save for a home. BMOs 15th annual Investment Survey reveals more than half (56%) of potential first-time homebuyers are planning to use the First Home Savings Account (FHSA) to help purchase their first home, up from 52% from 2023. The annual survey also finds the understanding of FHSAs is increasing and that parents are finding the FHSA an effective way to help their adult children save for a home. Mind The Knowledge Gap The FHSA knowledge gap is narrowing, with two fifths (40%) of Canadians indicating they have at least some knowledge of the account, up from 31% from last year. Nearly half (48%) of Gen Z are knowledgeable about the FHSAs features and benefits the highest among any age group. A (Tax-Free) Gift That Keeps on Giving The BMO Investment Survey also explores how families across generations may be using the FHSA as a financial gift for their children. Nearly a quarter (23%) of parents will likely use the FHSA to help their adult children save for their first home. Younger parents are also more likely to use the FHSA to help their adult children save for a home, according to the surveys findings: Millennial Parents: 42% Gen Z Parents: 21% Boomer Parents: 7% It is encouraging to see that over half of prospective buyers plan to use the First Home Savings Account to save, and we want to see that number grow because the FHSA is such a powerful tool. Benefits including the ability to make tax-deducible contributions, tax-free growth of the investments and the ability to hold various investment types make this plan the most advantageous way to save for a home. It is like an RRSP and TFSA rolled into one for first-time homebuyers, said Nicole Ow, Vice President and Head, Retail Investments, BMO. For most, buying their first home will be part of a multi-year plan, involving several savings vehicles like the FHSA, RRSP withdrawals through the Home Buyers Plan, and may also involve multiple generations, with parents and grandparents contributing financially. https://newsroom.bmo.com/2024-12-18-BMO-Investment-Survey-Over-Half-of-First-Time-Homebuyers-Plan-to-Use-First-Home-Savings-Account-FHSA-to-Buy-a-Home

2024 is playing out largely as expected across Canadas regional landscape, with most of the Prairie and Atlantic provinces leading economic growth while Ontario, B.C., and Quebec lag. A number of regions are capping off this year displaying moderately stronger momentum in economic growth and job creation than we had envisaged in September. However, any upgrades to 2025 provincial growth forecasts reflecting this positive hand-off have been neutralized by downside growth risks on Canada owing to the imposition of tariffs by the new U.S. administration. The president-elect has threatened to impose a 25% across-the-board tariff on Canadian exports. We assume that Canada will manage to avert this outcome, partly reflecting the energy-heavy nature of its exports to the U.S. Still, this regional forecast incorporates some chill to investment and hiring due to the tariff threat that is likely to linger. Importantly, no province would escape the fallout from a Canada/U.S. trade skirmish, with U.S. export exposure ranging from about 80-90% in Alberta, New Brunswick, and Ontario to a still-lofty 50-60% in B.C and Saskatchewan. Beyond the first-order effects from tariffs on exports, provinces would also feel the hit through damage to other trading partners. PEI, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba source a comparatively large share of their imports from the U.S., potentially leaving them exposed to inflation pressures should Canada impose tariffs of its own. The countrys population growth is set to stall over the next two years through planned reductions in both the pool of non-permanent residents (NPRs) and a scaling back in its annual permanent immigration targets. Ontario, B.C. and Quebec will likely see population growth pull back the fastest. Meanwhile, ongoing affordability advantages in the Prairies and some Maritime provinces will remain a lure for interprovincial migrants. A wave of federal government stimulus is set to reach Canadian consumers in the coming months, with Ontario set to roll out its own measure in the new year. Combined with ongoing interest rate reductions, we expect consumer spending growth to pick up across the provinces despite slower population growth. Provinces with the highest debt burdens, namely B.C., Ontario, and Alberta, should disproportionately benefit from easing conditions. Housing markets across the country are also poised to benefit from supportive federal measures, and gradually falling short-term interest rates. https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast

The Bank of Canada lowered the target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points for the second straight meeting, a decision in line with consensus and market expectations. This is the fifth rate reduction in as many meetings and brings the policy rate to 3.25%, or the upper end of the BoCs estimated neutral range (2.25% to 3.25%). The move also pushes the BoCs policy rate 150 bps below the Federal Reserves upper bound target, the most since 1997 (although that gap will likely narrow next week). Meanwhile, balance sheet normalization will continue as expected. Here are additional highlights from the communique and the opening statement to the press conference: Driving the decision to cut 50 bps was inflation around 2%, excess supply and softer growth ahead relative to earlier expectations. Macklem added in the opening statement to the press conference that monetary policy no longer needs to be clearly in restrictive territory. As for forward rate guidance, the press release notes we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time. In the presser, Macklem said they expect a more gradual approach to monetary policy if the economy evolves broadly as expected. Note they no longer explicitly say they expect to cut their policy rate further. The statement notes that Q3 growth was somewhat below the Banks projection and Q4 growth looks weaker than projected. Slower immigration will ease growth in 2025 while proposed fiscal measures will support demand. They will look through temporary demand effects. The press release highlights that job growth continues to grow slower than labour supply. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity. As for inflation, they still expect CPI to hover around 2% for the next couple of years. They note that the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the holiday ends. Therefore, watching core inflation will be critical to see underlying trends. The Bank didnt have much to say on tariff threats other than noting that these have increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook. \ https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 3%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Banks October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy continues to show broad-based strength, with robust consumption and a solid labour market. US inflation has been holding steady, with some price pressures persisting. In the euro area, recent indicators point to weaker growth. In China, recent policy actions combined with strong exports are supporting growth, but household spending remains subdued. Global financial conditions have eased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the US dollar. In Canada, the economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Banks October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports. In contrast, consumer spending and housing activity both picked up, suggesting lower interest rates are beginning to boost household spending. Historical revisions to the National Accounts have increased the level of GDP over the past three years, largely reflecting higher investment and consumption. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/12/fad-press-release-2024-12-11/