RIFO MORTGAGE

CANADA HOUSING MARKET: TRADE UNCERTAINTY CLOUDING THE INCOME OUTLOOK AND REDUCES HOUSING DEMAND From March to April national sales were essentially unchanged while new listings declined, leading to a marginal rise in the sales-to-new listings ratio over this period. Despite the uptick for this indicator in April, market conditions have significantly eased since the beginning of this year as reflected by the trend decline in this indicator and the rise in the months of inventory almost to its pre-pandemic average. National housing sales stayed relatively stable from March to April, edging down marginally (-0.1%), almost halting their constant decline since November 2024 (with a cumulative drop of 19.2%), the time when the upcoming U.S. administration made clear that imports from Canada and other countries would be slapped with steep tariffs and subsequently followed through with this stated intention. In April, sales were near 18% below their 2015-2024 period average level. National sales were -9.8% lower in April than their level in the same month of 2024. New listings declined -1.0% nationally from March to April but are still at relatively high historical levels, exceeding their 2015-2024 period average by about 7.2%. They increased 1.2% from the same month in 2024. Despite the modest uptick in the sales-to-new listings ratio from March to Aprilfrom 46.4 to 46.8%this indicator has been trending towards the estimated threshold for buyers favourable conditions since November of last year. Indeed, this indicator has eased considerably since the Bank of Canada started hiking its policy rate in March 2022 as sales trended down at a faster pace (a -38.3% cumulative decline since February 2022) than new listings (-5.7%). https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.may-15--2025.html

The number of sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems was unchanged (-0.1%) between March and April 2025, marking a pause in the trend of declining activity since the beginning of the year. Demand is currently hovering around levels seen during the second half of 2022, and the first and third quarters of 2023. At this point, the 2025 Canadian housing story would best be described as a return to the quiet markets weve experienced since 2022, with tariff uncertainty taking the place of high interest rates in keeping buyers on the sidelines, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. Given the increasing potential for a rough economic patch ahead, the risk going forward will be if an average number of people trying to sell their homes turns into a large number of people who have to sell their homes, and thats something we have not seen in decades. April Highlights: National home sales were unchanged (-0.1%) month-over-month. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 9.8% below April 2024. The number of newly listed properties fell 1% on a month-over-month basis. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) declined 1.2% month-over-month and was down 3.6% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was down 3.9% on a year-over-year basis. https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/declines-in-canadian-home-sales-take-a-pause-in-april-despite-ongoing-tariff-pressures/

Home sales remained relatively unchanged (-0.1%) from March to April following four monthly contractions. As a result, the number of transactions was 19% below the level in November last year, reversing last years rebound following the central banks interest rate cuts, and roughly in line with the depreciated level of sales observed in 2022. Sales increased in 6 of the countrys 10 provinces: New Brunswick (+5.2%), Manitoba (+3.3%), Quebec (+2.0%), Newfoundland (+1.9%), Nova Scotia (+1.8%), and Ontario (+1.1%). On the other hand, sales declined in B.C. (-2.3%), Alberta (-3.4%), Saskatchewan (-6.3%), and P.E.I. (-6.5%). There is no doubt that the ongoing trade conflict with the U.S. has weighed on consumer confidence and the housing market across the country, with potential buyers waiting for more economic visibility before acting. On the supply side, new listings decreased 1.0% from March to April. Combined with the low level of sales, active listings increased by 1.9% during the month, the fourth monthly advance in a row despite still elevated cancelled listings in April. Overall, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) increased for the fifth consecutive month, edging up from 5.0 in March to 5.1 in April, its highest level since April 2019 (excluding Covid). Meanwhile, market conditions loosened slightly during the month but remained relatively balanced compared to the historical average. This balanced market condition at the national level is explained by particularly soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while market conditions in every other province continue to indicate a favourable to sellers market. These looser market conditions have had an impact on prices, with the MLS Home Price Index declining by 1.2% month-over-month and by 3.6% year-over-year. On an annual basis, home sales dropped by 9.8% compared to April 2024, thus reaching their lowest level for that period of the year since 2009. Sales were down in four of the ten provinces: Ontario (- 20.2%), B.C. (-14.6%), Alberta (-11.7%), and Saskatchewan (-10.6%). On the other hand, the sharpest increases were observed in Quebec (+10.0%), Newfoundland (+7.4%), and Manitoba (+6.6%). For the first four months of 2025, cumulative home sales were down 7.2% compared to the same period in 2024. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-canada.pdf

In March, the total value of building permits issued in Canada decreased by $549.4 million (-4.1%) to $12.9 billion. The decrease was led by the non-residential sector (-$716.3 million), and it was tempered by the residential sector (+$166.9 million). On a constant dollar basis (2017=100), the total value of building permits issued in March decreased 5.1% from the previous month and was up 11.1% on a year-over-year basis. Single-family permits slow residential sector growth Residential construction intentions in Canada increased $166.9 million (+2.0%) in March to reach $8.7 billion. A gain in the multi-family component (+$322.5 million to $5.9 billion) was partially offset by a decline in the single-family component (-$155.6 million to $2.8 billion). The rise in the multi-family component in March was particularly strong in British Columbia (+$397.8 million), driven by the Vancouver census metropolitan area (CMA) (+$652.3 million). Meanwhile, the single-family component decrease was primarily observed in Ontario (-$185.7 million) and was supported by Quebec (-$26.0 million). Overall, 22,800 multi-family dwellings and 4,400 single-family dwellings were authorized for construction in March, representing a 4.6% increase from the previous month. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250514/dq250514a-eng.htm

A stable and efficient financial system is essential for sustaining economic growth and raising standards of living. In the Financial Stability Report, the Bank of Canada assesses the resilience of the Canadian financial system and focuses on key risks that could undermine its stability. Ultimately, financial stability benefits all Canadians. Key takeaways Canadas financial system is resilient. Overall, households, businesses, banks and non-bank financial intermediaries successfully weathered the pandemic, a period of elevated inflation, and sharp increases in interest rates. Over the past 12 months, Canadian households have been carrying, on average, less debt relative to their income, and insolvency filings by businesses have dropped significantly. But there are pockets of financial stress. The economic impacts of the pandemic, as well as elevated housing prices due to persistent imbalances in the housing market, have led to higher levels of debt for some households and businesses. This has made them more vulnerable to financial shocks. Because Canadian households and businesses have remained resilient overall, financial institutions have not come under stress. Canadian banks have generally maintained elevated capital buffers and have increased provisions for credit losses. Liquidity levels have remained high, and access to funding has continued to be strong. Recently, large and abrupt shifts in the direction of US trade policy have led to some bouts of extreme market volatility, including in the normally low-risk market for US Treasuries. This volatility tested the resilience of market participantsparticularly non-bank financial intermediaries deploying arbitrage strategies in the US Treasury market. The trade war currently threatens the Canadian economy and poses risks to financial stability. Near-term unpredictability of US trade and economic policy could cause further market volatility and a sharp repricing in assets, leading to strains on liquidity. In extreme circumstances, market volatility could turn into market dysfunction. In the medium to long term, a prolonged global trade war would have severe economic consequences. It would reduce economic growth and increase unemployment. Some households and businesses would be unable to continue making debt payments. If household and business credit defaults were to occur on a large scale, banks could see greater losses than they have provisioned for. This could lead them to pull back on lending, potentially exacerbating economic and financial stress. The Bank of Canada is watching developments closely and remains in regular contact with financial system participants and with other financial authorities in Canada and globally. A stable and resilient financial systemone that absorbs shocks and does not amplify themcan help the economy through periods of turbulence. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/

Half believe owning a home is less attainable than in 2024. 43% of homeowners say they could not have purchased their home without family assistance. The latest BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals that while over two thirds (67%) of homebuyers are waiting for interest rates to drop before purchasing a home a 5% decrease from 2024 experts say many more Canadians may take a wait and see approach as concerns about the prospect of an economic recession increased from 60% to 74% from March to April 2025. Canadas housing market remained under pressure heading into the spring, with sales and prices both weakening further, said Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist, BMO Capital Markets. There is some clear underlying weakness as inventory builds and investors remain absent. Suffice it to say, homebuyers are losing confidence and motivation, especially in areas of B.C. and Southern Ontario. The BMO survey examines how concerns about the economy have influenced Canadians homebuying decisions: Revisiting Rates: Over two-thirds (67%) of prospective homeowners believe rates affect their buying decisions. Two in five (38%) Canadians are waiting for rates to drop to 3% or lower before purchasing or refinancing home. In addition, 44% admit they are unsure about the rate they would be comfortable with to move forward with buying or refinancing their home. Missed Momentum: When looking at the current housing market, 56% of prospective homeowners feel they missed their moment to buy a home. Two-thirds (66%) of Millennials feel they had missed their homebuying moment more than any other generation. Challenged Confidence: While 59% of Canadians believe homeownership is one of their greatest life aspirations, half (50%) believe owning a home is less attainable than it was 12 months ago, and two-thirds (66%) are less confident that they will own a home in their lifetime compared to five years ago. Deferred Demand: Among the 38% of homebuyers planning on purchasing a home in the near future, only 14% plan to in 2025 and a quarter (24%) plan on doing so in 2026 or later. Location, Location, Location: More than half (52%) of aspiring homebuyers would consider moving to a different province or country in order to afford buying a home. https://newsroom.bmo.com/2025-05-05-BMO-Survey-Rising-Recession-Concerns-Among-Canadians-Sidelining-Prospective-Homebuyers

Canadian home sales fell on a month-over-month basis once again in March 2025, as rising tariff turmoil and uncertainty is keeping home buyers on the sidelines. Sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems sank 4.8% month-over-month in March 2025. Along with declines in each of the three previous months, national home sales are now down 20% from their recent high recorded last November. Up until this point, declining home sales have mostly been about tariff uncertainty. Going forward, the Canadian housing space will also have to contend with the actual economic fallout. In short order weve gone from a slam dunk rebound year to treading water at best, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. While the largest of these declines have been seen in Ontario and British Columbia, sales are down over the last few months in all but a handful of small markets across the country. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the overall Canadian sales total for March 2025 fell 9.3% year-over-year and was the lowest for that month since 2009. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

Home sales fell by 4.8% between February and March, the fourth consecutive monthly drop in a row for this indicator. Following this decline, the number of transactions was 20% below the level in November last year, reversing last years rebound following the central banks interest rate cuts. Milder weather in March, particularly in the eastern provinces, failed to stimulate the housing market, as sales declined in 8 of the countrys 10 provinces, with P.E.I. (+2.7%) and Saskatchewan (+0.3%) being the exceptions. Newfoundland (-12.9%), New Brunswick (-8.7%), Ontario (-7.1%), B.C. (-7.0%), and Manitoba (-5.2%) experienced above-average declines in sales, while Nova Scotia (-4.5%), Quebec (-3.1%), and Alberta (-0.6%) experienced smaller drops. There is no doubt that the ongoing trade war with the U.S. has weighed on consumer confidence and the housing market across the country, with potential buyers waiting for more economic visibility before acting. On the supply side, new listings rebounded 3.0% from February to March following an 11.9% decrease the previous month. Combined with the decrease in sales, active listings increased by 3.3% during the month, the third monthly advance in a row despite still elevated cancelled listings in March. Overall, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) increased for the fourth consecutive month, jumping from 4.7 in February to 5.1 in March, its highest level since April 2019 (excluding Covid). Meanwhile, market conditions loosened sharply during the month and moved from slightly tighter than their historical average to looser than average for the first time since June 2019 (excluding Covid). This was mainly due to a sharp softening in market conditions in Ontario and B.C., which are now deep into favourable to buyers territory. All other provinces are still showing tighter than average market conditions. These suppler market conditions have had an impact on prices, with the MLS Home Price Index declining by 1.0% month-over-month and by 2.1% year-over year. On an annual basis, home sales dropped by 9.3% compared to March 2024, thus reaching their lowest level for that period of the year since 2009. Sales were down in four of the ten provinces, with the biggest decreases in Ontario (-24.6%) and B.C. (-9.6%), while the sharpest increases were observed in P.E.I. (+13.5%), Newfoundland (+9.7%), and Quebec (+9.1%). For the first quarter of 2025, cumulative home sales were down 6.3% compared to the same period in 2024. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-canada.pdf

The Canadian economy ended 2024 strong. However, the escalating trade conflict is diminishing growth prospects. While tariffs are expected to increase price pressures, removing the consumer carbon tax has lowered energy prices. The unpredictability of US trade policy, and the speed and magnitude of the shifts, are making the economic outlook very uncertain. In February and March 2025, the United States repeatedly threatened, imposed and then suspended tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Significant US tariffs remain in place, particularly on steel, aluminum and motor vehicles. Then, on April 2, the United States announced high and broad-based tariffs on nearly all its other trading partners. One week later, on April 9, it reduced most of those tariffs for 90 days to a 10% universal rate. This universal tariff does not apply to Canada and Mexico. There is a great deal of uncertainty around what will happen next. Trade policy uncertainty is making it difficult for households, businesses and governments to plan. It is also difficult to know how the tariffs will affect the economy. Consequently, it is unusually challenging to project economic activity and consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Canada and globally. Instead of a base-case projection, this Report contains two illustrative scenarios that consider different US trade policies. In addition, the Risks section focuses on the uncertainty related to how tariffs will impact the economy. The Bank of Canada has chosen this approach to better manage the risks in this highly uncertain environment. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/mpr/mpr-2025-04-16/

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The major shift in direction of US trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations. Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy. In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope. Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canadas economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year. Many other trade policy scenarios are possible. There is also an unusual degree of uncertainty about the economic outcomes within any scenario, since the magnitude and speed of the shift in US trade policy are unprecedented. Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the United States, the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the euro area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. Chinas economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly. Financial markets have been roiled by serial tariff announcements, postponements and continued threats of escalation. This extreme market volatility is adding to uncertainty. Oil prices have declined substantially since January, mainly reflecting weaker prospects for global growth. Canadas exchange rate has recently appreciated as a result of broad US dollar weakness. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/04/fad-press-release-2025-04-16/

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations was conducted through an online panel from January 29 to February 19, 2025. Follow-up phone interviews took place from February 20 to 25, 2025. This period was characterized by pervasive uncertainty created by the sudden and unpredictable shifts in US trade policy. Overview Overall, results of the first-quarter 2025 survey show that the escalating trade conflict with the United States is damaging consumer sentiment. Confidence in the labour market has weakened sharply. This is because many consumersnotably those working in sectors that are highly dependent on tradeare worried about losing their job. In this context, consumers have also become more pessimistic about their financial health. Although consumption plans had been improving over several quarters, consumers now intend to spend more cautiously given the uncertainty around the trade conflict. In addition, elevated housing costs and the high prices of many goods and services continued to weigh on households spending plans. Consumers expect the trade conflict to lead to a higher cost of living. This is reflected in their short-term inflation expectations, which rose in the first quarter of 2025. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/04/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-first-quarter-of-2025/

By TD Economics The one-two punch of winter storms and tariff-related economic uncertainty sent a chill through Canadian housing markets in the first quarter. Were now tracking a double-digit quarterly decline in Canadian home sales and a mid-single digit drop in Canadian average home prices. These outcomes are much weaker than our pre-Trump inauguration forecast made in December, where we assumed that a loosening in federal mortgage rules, lower interest rates and continued economic growth would fuel a modest Q1 gain in sales and prices. This much softer starting point has us led to materially mark down our 2025 annual average growth forecasts for Canadian home sales and prices. Moving forward, its unlikely that activity will be as weak as it was in the first quarter. However, we still think that elevated uncertainty and a deteriorating jobs market will yield subdued sales and price growth for much of 2025. 2025 home price forecasts have been cut the most in B.C. and Ontario, where we now think that prices will decline in annual average terms this year. This reflects muted demand conditions in both markets and supply/demand balances that are heavily skewed in the favour of buyers. Of note, the GTA condo market is particularly soft, which will weigh on prices in Ontario this year. Elsewhere, 2025 quarterly price growth forecasts have been marked down to sub-trend levels in other parts of the country. Were retaining our view that quarterly price gains will outperform in the Prairies moving forward given relatively tight supply/demand balances and comparatively better affordability. An improving backdrop should set the stage for a notable rebound in home sales and average home prices in 2026. Specially, hiring should improve as were assuming a dialing back in tariff-related uncertainty . At the same time, interest rates should be at multi-year lows. These factors will facilitate the release of significant pent-up demand. However, the scale of bounce-back in Canadian average home prices will likely be restrained by poor affordability in key markets like B.C. and Ontario. https://economics.td.com/ca-provincial-housing-outlook

Owning a home remains a critical source of wealth accumulation for many Canadian families, with real estate equity representing 42% of overall household wealth in 2023. The link between homeownership and wealth creation is even more pronounced for younger families, with housing assets accounting for nearly half of total wealth. As housing affordability deteriorated, the barriers to homeownership have become increasingly prohibitive, particularly for those without familial support. In 2019, 3 in 10 homeowners reported receiving an inheritance at a median value of $67,000, while 2 in 10 renters received a median value of $33,000. As home values appreciated strongly throughout the COVID-19 pandemic period, so too did inheritances for homeowners. By 2023, the median inheritance Canadian homeowners received had risen to $85,100. A looming wave of interfamilial wealth transfers is set to occur as baby boomers age, putting those with familial means in a more secure financial situation than those without. A wealth transfer in the form of an inheritance, whether from a living or deceased relative, is just one way many homeowners have benefited from familial support when entering the housing market. Other forms of assistance, such as receiving partial or full downpayment gifts, borrowing from family members rather than a bank, or receiving intergenerational property transfers, are also potentially important forms of familial support and are reported in Statistics Canadas Survey of Financial Security. Across all age cohorts, 5% of families were living in a home that was acquired in full or in part from a gift or an inheritance, and 9% reported that at least some of the downpayment for their home had been from a gift or an inheritance. When combined with those who borrowed from family and friends rather than a financial institution to purchase their home, the overall share of homeowners who benefited from an inheritance or other types of familial support to enter the housing market rose to 4 in 10. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2025003/article/00001-eng.htm

From Scotiabank HIGHLIGHTS Canadas housing market has been on a roller coaster ride since the pandemic as reflected by the profile for real private investment in residential structures, housing starts, sales and prices over this period. Housing affordability worsened significantly over this period with house prices reaching historical highs and mortgage rates increasing with the tightening in monetary policy since early 2022. Indeed, over this 5-year period home ownership affordability pressures have reached degrees like those witnessed in the early 1980s. Using Scotiabank Economics macro-econometric model of the Canadian and U.S. economies, we estimate that tightening supply constraints in construction from 2019Q3 to 2024Q4reflecting weakening productivity and rising construction material costsand above-normal population growth since 2022 each contributed to raise the benchmark MLS Home Price Index (HPI) a bit more than $50,000 over that 5-year period. This implies that if supply constraints had not tightened and population growth had stayed near its long-term average, the benchmark MLS HPI would have been slightly below $616,000 instead of the near $719,500 posted for 2024Q4. Our assessment and results strongly press the need to work on improving productivity to achieve housing affordability. Indeed, reducing bureaucratic burdens will also make housing supply more responsive to demand, thereby reducing price increases for a given rise in demand in the future. From 2024 to 2026, weaker population growth and uncertainty about trade barriers and their economic impact will reduce demand for homeownership. We forecast housing resale activity will slow in 2025 and 2026, declining from near 483,000 in 2024 to about 459,000 in 2026. Tight supply constraints will contribute to raise house prices especially in 2026 and mitigate progress on affordability from the past decline in interest rates and robust growth in real income. We expect the MLS House Price Index to rise by 0.4% in 2025 and 7% in 2026 with still-elevated supply constraints and pressure from the existing dwelling shortage. Of course, this expected profile for housing sales, starts and prices would be weaker if additional tariffs announced by the U.S. turn out more important than assumed in this forecast. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-note.housing-note--march-19-2025-.html

Canadian Housing Survey shows women are more likely than men to be in core housing need. Overall, women were more likely to be in core housing need than men. Women experienced higher rates of core housing need in almost all age groups. However, the disparity was greatest between senior women and senior men over the age of 75. Racialized women had higher rates of core housing need than non-racialized women. Women-led, one-parent households had higher rates of core housing need than men-led, one-parent households. Women living alone not in a census family were more likely to be in core housing need than couples with and without children. Core housing need highlights the challenges many Canadians face in finding safe, suitable and affordable housing. Core housing need occurs when a household falls short of one or more housing standards adequacy, suitability or affordability and would need to spend 30% or more of its before-tax income to access housing that meets all 3 standards. Core housing need rates are often provided at the household level as the impact is felt by all individuals living in the household. According to the Canadian Housing Survey, approximately 1.7 million households (11.2%) were assessed to be in core housing need in 2022. This translates to approximately 3.3 million individuals (9.1%). https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/blog/2025/core-housing-need-gender

By TD Economics Weve slashed our real GDP growth forecasts for this year from coast-to-coast, reflecting the impact of the Canada-U.S. trade war. Solid Q1 activity across regions will buffer annual averages, but we foresee a mild recession unfolding for Canada in the middle-part of this year. Our forecast assumes that Canadas exports to the U.S. will face a 12.5% effective tariff rate for six months, lowered to 5% in Q4-2025 and held there through the projection horizon. We expect Canada to retaliate with their $155 billion package over the next two quarters before paring back to $30 billion. Across provinces, Quebec and Ontario are especially exposed to tariff risks given their outsized manufacturing sectors. However, Quebecs public sector is also quite large, and is less directly exposed. New Brunswick, meanwhile, is heavily reliant on the U.S. as an export destination. On the flipside, U.S.-bound shipments make up only a small share of GDP in Nova Scotia and B.C., while a lower 10% tariff on energy exports will likely soften the blow in Albertas case. The commodities backdrop, especially crude oil, is softening due to the prospect of slowing global demand growth. WTI prices have been revised lower, impacting profitability and investment in key resource-producing provinces. Our forecast builds in assumed support from government stimulus. So far, weve received budgets from Nova Scotia, B.C., and Alberta. For the most part, growth-supporting efforts have focused on infrastructure spending and allocating funds for trade-war related contingencies. Alberta, however, will roll out a sizeable tax cut for households this year. Provinces are also retaliating to through various measures, including the elimination of U.S. alcohol purchases. Weve downgraded our annual average housing forecasts for nearly every province this year (Newfoundland and Labrador gets a reprieve given solid momentum heading into 2025). Q1-25 performances were weak across most provinces. Part of this can be traced to severe winter storms in February, although tariff-related economic uncertainty is probably weighing. A subdued performance is likely in the cards for the bulk of 2025, before an improving jobs market, pent-up demand and waning uncertainty drives a better outcome in 2026. https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast

Home sales dropped by 9.8% between January and February, the third monthly contraction in a row and the strongest decline since May 2022 when the Bank of Canada was tightening its monetary policy aggressively. On the supply side, new listings down 12.7% from January to February following a 14.8% jump the previous month. Active listings increased by 3.4% from January to February, the third monthly advance in a row. Combined with the decrease in sales, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) increased for the third consecutive month, jumping from 4.1 in January to 4.7 in February, its highest level since June 2019 (excluding Covid). Market conditions loosened sharply during the month and moved from tighter than their historical average to balanced. This was mainly due to a sharp softening in market conditions in Ontario and B.C., which are now in favourable to buyers territory. On the other hand, all other provinces are still showing tighter than average market conditions. Housing starts decreased by 4% (-10.3K) in February to 229.0K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a print below the median economist forecast calling for 246K units. The monthly loss was driven by a decrease in urban starts (-10.3K to 209.8K) while rural starts were flat (at 19.2K). In urban centres, the regression was observed in the multi-unit segment (-9.8K to 166.5K), while starts edged down in the single-detached segment (-0.5K to 43.3K). The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 0.1% from January to February after seasonal adjustment. Three of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Victoria (-1.4%), Vancouver (-0.9%) and Toronto (-0.5%). Conversely, prices rose in Halifax (+2.8%), Winnipeg (+0.9%), Montreal (+0.9%), Edmonton (+0.9%), Calgary (+0.8%), Quebec City (+0.6%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.3%) and Hamilton (+0.2%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

Canadian home sales fell sharply from January to February, as home buyers remained on the sidelines in the first full month of the ongoing trade war with the United States. Sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems dropped 9.8% month-over-month in February 2025, marking the lowest level for home sales since November 2023, and the largest month-over-month decline in activity since May 2022. The moment tariffs were first announced on January 20, a gap opened between home sales recorded this year and last. This trend continued to widen throughout February, leading to a significant, but hardly surprising, drop in monthly activity, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. This is already being reflected in renewed price softness, particularly in Ontarios Greater Golden Horseshoe region. Declines were broad-based, with sales falling in about three-quarters of all local markets and in almost all large markets. The trend was most pronounced in the Greater Toronto Area and surrounding Great Golden Horseshoe regions. February Highlights: National home sales dropped 9.8% month-over-month. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 10.4% below February 2024. The number of newly listed properties fell back 12.7% month-over-month. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) declined 0.8% month-over-month and was down 1% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price fell 3.3% on a year-over-year basis. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

Decision Details: The Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with a nearly unanimous consensus and market pricing. This is the 7th consecutive cut, bringing cumulative rate relief to 225 basis points since June 2024. At 2.75%, the policy rate is equal to the mid-point of the BoCs estimated neutral range (2.25% to 3.25%) The BoCs overnight target is now 175 basis points below the Feds upper bound policy target (the largest rate gap since 1997) As was the case in January, the Bank will set the deposit rate 5 basis points below the target rate (2.70%). The Bank rate will remain 25 basis points above the overnight target (3.00%). Rate Statement Opening to the Press Conference: Driving the decision to cut 25 bps was inflation close to 2% and pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing US tariff threats. This is restraining consumers spending intentions and businesses plans to hire and invest. Note that in January, the Bank cited excess supply in the economy as contributing to that decision to ease. Theres no reference to excess supply or an output gap today. Not surprisingly, the Bank didnt commit to any particular rate path. However, theyve stressed that theyll have to proceed carefully with any further changes to our policy rate. Thats because there are upward pressures on inflation from higher costs along with the downward pressures from weaker demand.. The Bank notes that the economy entered 2025 in a solid position with robust GDP growth, stronger than their earlier assessment. That said, growth in Q1 will likely slow as the intensifying trade conflict weighs on sentiment and activity. Export growth, however, could come in strong as US importers front loaded orders ahead of tariffs. As for the labour market, the statement notes the hiring pick-up from November to January but acknowledged Februarys. They add there are warning signs that trade tensions could disrupt the job market recovery. On wage growth, they see signs of moderation. The Bank highlights that headline inflation is close to the 2% target. The federal tax holiday has muddied the inflation picture, but the Bank notes inflation will be around 2.5% after the tax break. Again, the statement downplays above-target core inflation measures which are occurring because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. The Bank also stressed that short-term inflation expectations have risen. In an accompanying release, the BoC provided insight into how Canadian businesses and households are reacting to the trade conflict. The report highlighted consumer spending caution (plans to defer large purchases and increase precautionary savings), job security worries (especially in industries directly relying on exports to the U.S.), and a subdued business outlook. The BoC highlighted that businesses are reducing hiring/investment plans on the basis of heightened trade uncertainty, while both consumers and businesses are expecting prices to increase over the next year. While the opening remarks to the presser mention that the economic activity impact from tariffs is largely yet to be seen, uncertainty is already weighing considerably on business and consumer intentions. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a solid position, with inflation close to the 2% target and robust GDP growth. However, heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada. The economic outlook continues to be subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape. After a period of solid growth, the US economy looks to have slowed in recent months. US inflation remains slightly above target. Economic growth in the euro zone was modest in late 2024. Chinas economy has posted strong gains, supported by government policies. Equity prices have fallen and bond yields have eased on market expectations of weaker North American growth. Oil prices have been volatile and are trading below the assumptions in the Banks January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Canadian dollar is broadly unchanged against the US dollar but weaker against other currencies. Canadas economy grew by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 following upwardly revised growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. This growth path is stronger than was expected at the time of the January MPR. Past cuts to interest rates have boosted economic activity, particularly consumption and housing. However, economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 will likely slow as the intensifying trade conflict weighs on sentiment and activity. Recent surveys suggest a sharp drop in consumer confidence and a slowdown in business spending as companies postpone or cancel investments. The negative impact of slowing domestic demand has been partially offset by a surge in exports in advance of tariffs being imposed. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/03/fad-press-release-2025-03-12/

New home prices continued slowdown in January The national index edged down 0.1% on a month-over-month basis in January, following the same decline in the previous month. Prices were unchanged in 15 out of the 27 surveyed census metropolitan areas (CMAs). Meanwhile, nine CMAs saw an increase, while three CMAs were down. Even though more CMAs recorded price increases in January, a decline was seen at the national level. This decrease was driven by Toronto (-0.4%), the largest new housing market in Canada, accounting for nearly one-quarter (23.6%) of the national weight. The largest month-over-month decrease of new home prices in January was recorded in Ottawa (-0.5%), followed by Toronto (-0.4%) and Edmonton (-0.2%). The weight of these three CMAs accounts for 38.8% of the national index. The latest new housing sales figures show a slowdown in the Ottawa and Toronto markets. Data collected from the Greater Ottawa Home Builders Association shows a 21.2% monthly decline in sales of new detached houses and townhouses in December 2024. In the case of Toronto, Altus Group reported a decline in new single-family home sales (-68.6%) in December 2024. The largest monthly increases in January 2025 were registered in Saskatoon (+0.6%) and St. CatharinesNiagara region (+0.6%), followed by Qubec (+0.5%) and Winnipeg (+0.4%). Reduced borrowing costs fuelled the demand for housing in the CMAs where prices were relatively more affordable. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported declines in inventory of completed and unsold single-family homes in Qubec (-10.8%) and Winnipeg (-3.3%) in December 2024 compared to the previous month. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250220/dq250220c-eng.htm

With the second Bank of Canada (BoC) rate announcement this year around the corner on March 12, many Canadians are eager to see if the central bank will cut its lending rate again. In January, the BoC cut its lending rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down from 3.25% to 3%. So, is more rate relief on the way? According to TD Economist Derek Burleton, the BoC is likely to cut its lending rate at the upcoming announcement by 25 basis points. We are anticipating a follow-up cut in March, and TD Economics predicts the central bank will bring its lending rate down to 2.75%, Burleton said. Since the inflation data came out a few weeks ago, market odds of a cut fell as low as 30%, but have since jumped to 90% following the imposition of U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports. So, while theres still a chance that the central bank will announce a rate hold, there is a growing consensus that a cut is in store. Burleton explained that the Bank of Canada needs to help prepare for the economic risks on the horizon especially around tariffs. Even with recent reports showing a resilient job market and robust GDP growth in Canada, the central bank needs to ensure the economy is prepared for U.S. tariffs to hit Canadian exports, he said. https://stories.td.com/ca/en/article/will-bank-of-canada-cut-interest-rates-march-2025

Overall, investment in building construction rose 1.9% (+$408.1 million) to $21.8 billion in December, with gains recorded across all components. The residential sector grew 2.2% to $15.1 billion while the non-residential sector was up 1.3% to $6.7 billion. Year over year, investment in building construction grew 4.7% in December. On a constant dollar basis (2017=100), investment in building construction increased 1.5% from the previous month to $13.0 billion in December and was up 1.6% year over year. Multi-unit component drives residential sector gains in December Investment in residential building construction was up 2.2% (+$323.9 million) to $15.1 billion in December. Single family home investment edged up 0.8% (+$60.7 million) to $7.3 billion in December, marking its fifth consecutive monthly increase. Investment in multi-unit construction rose 3.5% (+$263.2 million) to $7.7 billion in December, rebounding from two significant and consecutive monthly declines. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250213/dq250213a-eng.htm

Canadian MLS Systems posted a double-digit jump in new supply in January 2025 when compared to December 2024. At the same time, sales activity fell off at the end of the month, likely reflecting uncertainty over the potential for a trade war with the United States. Although sales were down 3.3% on a month-over-month basis in January, this was mostly the result of sales trailing off in the last week of the month. Meanwhile, the number of newly listed homes increased with an 11% jump compared to the final month of 2024. Aside from some of the wild swings seen during the pandemic, this was the largest seasonally adjusted monthly increase in new supply on record going back to the late 1980s. The standout trends to begin the year were a big jump in new supply at an uncommon time of year, as well as a weakening in sales which only showed up around the last week of January, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. The timing of that change in demand leaves little doubt as to the cause uncertainty around tariffs. Together with higher supply, this means markets that had been steadily tightening up since last fall are now suddenly in a softer pricing situation again, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario. https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/fourth-quarter-housing-data-hints-at-home-sales-rebound-for-2025-2/

Summary Home sales decreased by 3.3% between December and January, the second monthly contraction in a row, which can be explained by a slowdown in transactions in the last week of January. On the supply side, new listings surged by 11.0% compared to December, the first increase in four months and the biggest jump since February 2022 (rebound following Omicron wave). Active listings jumped by 4.2% from December to January, the second monthly advance in a row. Combined with the decrease in sales, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) increased for the second consecutive month, moving from 3.9 in December to 4.2 in January. Market conditions loosened during the month but remained tighter than their historical average in most provinces, while they remained balanced in B.C. and were in favourable to buyers territory in Ontario. Housing starts increased by 3% (+7.2K) in January to 239.7K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a print below the median economist forecast calling for 252.5K units. The monthly gain was driven by an increase in both urban (+5.6K to 220.6K) and rural (+1.7K to 19.1K) starts. Starts were up in Montreal (+17.8K to 31.4K), Toronto (+17.2K to 29.1K), and Calgary (+0.4K to 21.4K), while they were down in Vancouver (-4.1K to 25.0K) from December to January. On a provincial basis, starts were up the most in Quebec (+16.6K to 58.4K), Nova Scotia (+2.8K to 8.2K), Alberta (+1.4K to 44.8K), and P.E.I. (+1.2K to 2.5K), while they saw the biggest decrease in Ontario (-6.4K to 57.0K), B.C. (-6.5K to 39.0K) and New Brunswick (-3.1K to 1.7K). The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index remained stable from December to January after seasonal adjustment. Seven of the 11 markets in the composite index rose during the month: Quebec City (+3.2%), Halifax (+0.9%), Calgary (+0.8%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.6%), Victoria (+0.6%), Edmonton (+0.6%) and Montreal (+0.4%). Conversely, prices fell in Winnipeg (-1.5%), Hamilton (-1.4%) and Vancouver (-0.6%), while they remained stable in Toronto. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

Canada Housing Market: Trade uncertainty weighed on housing markets in January ... and this is likely to continue in the foreseeable future National housing market conditions eased significantly in January 2025 with sales declining and new listings posting a near-record monthly rise. The national MLS House Price Index stayed essentially unchanged in January. Both declining sales and sharply rising new listings contributed to cool housing resales conditions nationally from December 2024 to January 2025. Over this period sales declined -3.3%, following a -5% decline from November to December. In January 2025, sales were only 2.9% above their level in the same month of 2024. But from the CREA report, the sales decline in January came mostly from a weak performance in its last week, the period where uncertainty on the new U.S. administration tariff policy started flying high. New listings climbed 11% from December to January and their level was at an historical high, excluding the very volatile initial 12-month period of the pandemic. In terms of their monthly progression, new listings posted the second largest historical increase in January (again outside the above-mentioned pandemic period), after the one observed in February 2022 (+21.4%) when house prices were at their historical summit and just before the Bank of Canada and other central banks started hiking their policy rate. This monetary policy tightening led to the subsequent cooling in Canadas economic and housing market conditions and house prices declining. With sales declining and new listings rising, the national sales-to-new listings ratio cooled further and significantly from December to January, declining from 56.5% to 49.3% over this period. This indicator of market pressures is now below the mid-point of our estimated balanced conditions zone (of between 44.7% to 66.1%). Another indicator of national market pressures, months of inventory, also eased from December to January, increasing from 3.9 to 4.2 months over this period nationally, but was still below its long-term pre-pandemic average of 5.2 months. All provinces witnessed an increase in their months of inventory from December to January, except for Saskatchewan where it was unchanged and for Newfoundland and Labrador where it declined (from 5.5 to 4.3 months). https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.february-18--2025.html

On average, the cost of finding love can add up to $3,621 One third of couples say spending is a source of conflict in the relationship A special Valentines Day report from the BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals 56% of Canadians say the rising cost of living is affecting dating, with many going on fewer dates and/or planning less expensive dating activities. The survey explores how concerns about the economy and personal finances have affected approaches to dating and relationships and found 42% of single Canadians admitted to adjusting their plans for a date for financial reasons. Nearly a third (30%) of single Canadians have cancelled a date to save money. Canadians on average spend $173 for each date, including the cost for transportation, preparation such as grooming and attire, and expenses such as food, beverages and tickets. On average, partnered Canadians have gone on 10 to 21 dates before committing to a relationship, suggesting Canadians could spend up to $3,621 on dates before making a relationship official. https://newsroom.bmo.com/2025-02-06-BMO-Survey-Rising-Cost-of-Living-is-Affecting-Dating

From CMHC High housing costs burden Canadians in many ways. Here, we concentrate on how these costs discourage Canadians from moving to better places to live and to the cities where they would like to work. Improving affordability will hence boost the productivity of Canadas economy. When choosing where to live and work, Canadians not only look at the wage increase they might get. They must be realistic about housing costs if they have to move to a new location. And they may give up on opportunities given by a new job that improves their skills and knowledge and hence the productivity of the country if they cant afford to cover the cost of housing after moving. Similarly, employers must pay more to attract highly skilled workers to their locations to cover those workers higher cost of living. This raises costs and lowers productivity. Changes in housing affordability across the country lead to knock-on changes for other cities. For example, our modelling suggests that were Toronto to double its housing starts over the next decade to address its own affordability challenges but without policy changes its population would be 3% greater than currently projected. Others, mostly from the rest of Ontario, would be attracted there. More generally, we find that a 1% increase in house prices in the destination city will make it less attractive and will lead to a decline in the number of people moving there of a little more than 1%. Cities need to understand the impacts of house prices across the country when planning for their own growth. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/blog/2025/high-housing-costs-making-harder-move-jobs-many-seeking

From CMHC Highlights Foreign trade risks and immigration changes add significant uncertainty to the outlook. We expect economic activity to be modest in 2025, picking up in 2026 and 2027. Housing starts will slow down from 2025 to 2027 mainly due to fewer condominium apartments being built but total starts will remain above their 10-year average. Rental apartment construction will remain high but may slow in 2027 as demand eases. Ground-oriented homes (detached, semi-detached, row homes) may recover slightly, especially in more affordable options like row houses. We expect housing sales and prices to rebound as lower mortgage rates and changes to mortgage rules unlock pent-up demand in the short term. In the longer term, stronger economic fundamentals will support this rebound. The recovery will be uneven, with slower progress in less affordable regions and in the condominium apartment market. Rental markets are expected to ease with higher vacancy rates slowing rent growth. Renter affordability will improve gradually, with more noticeable changes happening later in the forecast period. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook?utm_medium=emailutm_source=email-e-blastutm_campaign=2025-01-housing_market_outlook_2025

Highlights In 2021, 1.65 million households comprised of roommates or extended family sharing living space. These households were about evenly split between those with roommates and those with extended family, each group representing about 800,000 households. One in five households with roommates or extended family members (21.7%) was living in a crowded dwelling, compared with 3.4% of other households. In contrast, households with roommates or extended family members (16.7%) were less likely to be in unaffordable housing than other households (21.5%). About 900,000 people lived with extended family without contributing to housing costs, and almost half (47.5%) of them had no income or an income of less than $30,000. Just under 400,000 people lived with non-relatives without contributing to housing costs, and over one-third (36.6%) of them were living in poverty. Estimates of the number of people in shared housing experiencing housing instability or unmet housing need varied depending on the criteria used to define these concepts. One estimate suggested that 71,000 people had several risk factors for housing instability or unmet housing need, including living with non-relatives, not contributing to housing costs, having an income of less than $30,000 or living in poverty, and residing in a crowded dwelling. Another estimate indicated that just under 1.7 million people could be experiencing housing instability or unmet housing need when defined solely by living in a crowded dwelling. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/46-28-0001/2025001/article/00001-eng.htm