Angela Jenkins

From TD Economics Relative to our September projection, weve upgraded our 2025 growth forecasts across most regions, partly on the back of data revisions that showed economies entering the year with stronger momentum than expected. We continue to see PEI, AB, SK and NF as growth leaders this year, lifted by goods-producing industries. Meanwhile, QC, MB and ON are the likely laggards, weighed down by the trade war. For 2026, we see commodity-producing provinces outperforming again, but their margin of outperformance is likely to shrink amid moderately lower commodity prices, most prominently crude oil. Meanwhile, with the trade war proving less damaging than initially feared, provinces more geared to U.S. trade like ON, MB, QC, and NB have seen upgrades to their 2026 growth forecasts. Provincial exports have improved mildly since the peak of the trade shock in Q2-25, but limited trade-data access has clouded recent recovery trends. We assume that current tariff rates as well as the USMCA exemptions remain in place over the forecast horizon. The outcome of USMCA renegotiations is a risk to the outlook. Job markets in most provinces have turned in a more resilient performance than we had expected in September. Downside surprises in unemployment rates have been most pronounced in ON, AB, QC, NB, and PEI. While we could see job markets stumble again over the next few months, were expecting unemployment rates to broadly peak by Q1-2026 before drifting lower thereafter. Significant regional variations will exist as Canadas housing market continues its gradual improvement next year. Price growth is likely to lag significantly in Ontario and, to a lesser extent, B.C., reflecting loose supply/demand conditions. In contrast, Quebec and the Prairies are likely to see firmer price gains, underpinned by tight conditions, and decent affordability (in the Prairies). Population growth is projected to continue to decelerate sharply across provinces in response to recent changes in federal immigration policy. These changes are constraining labour force growth, limiting upside in provincial jobless rates and pressuring down rents and to a lesser extent consumer spending. Provinces most exposed to these effects include ON, B.C. and QC due to their higher non-permanent resident (NPR) shares. https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast