Anastasia Yakovlev

Canada has experienced around 300 catastrophic weather events since 1983, with both the frequency and cost of these disasters rising significantly in recent years. Over 60% of total insured losses caused by weather disasters between 2008 and 2024 stemmed from damage to personal property. Average insured personal property losses have nearly doubled in the past five years compared to previous years, putting significant pressure on Canadas home insurance sector for both insurers and households faced with rising home insurance rates. The increase in home insurance costs was generally higher in areas that have experienced greater insured damages from weather disasters. As well, some highly-impacted areas also face rising deductibles or reduced coverage for certain perils like hail or floods. Fiscally-constrained governments are also rethinking the level of financial assistance provided through disaster recovery programs to support communities recovering from uninsurable losses as costs of weather disasters rise. Canada has had over 300 catastrophic weather events since 1983. These are currently defined as weather disasters that cause at least $30 million in insured losses, though lower thresholds were used prior to 2022. The average number of annual catastrophic events has increased over time as have insured losses associated with these events. Insured losses vary by province with Alberta accounting for the largest share of total insured losses between 1983 and 2024, followed by Ontario and Quebec. The three provinces are the only ones that have been hit by billion-dollar-plus catastrophic events so far, with Alberta alone having had five as of 2024. More than 60% of insured losses from 2008 to 2024 were due to damage to personal property. In addition, the costs have increased substantially in recent years with insured damages to personal property during 2020-2024 being almost twice their level in the previous decade. Moreover, the insurance industry in Canada incurred underwriting losses in the personal property line of business in 2023 and 2024 as insured damages and operational expenses exceeded revenue earned from premiums. These changes have contributed to rising home insurance premiums, especially in areas hardest hit by severe weather, with Alberta being the most notable example of the variation in insurance cost increases between more and less vulnerable areas. Additionally, high-risk areas face other adjustments to home insurance policies including higher deductibles for example, for hail coverage in areas that have experienced substantial damage from hailstorms. In worst case situations, insurance coverage is simply not available for certain perils such as overland flooding in areas of the country deemed most at risk of flooding. Meanwhile, as households that are most vulnerable to severe weather are feeling the squeeze from the private insurance market, government disaster recovery programs, which have historically acted as an insurer of last resort, are also beginning to restrict the level of support provided to impacted communities as these programs are also contending with rising costs of extreme weather. https://economics.td.com/ca-extreme-weather-and-insurance

After a decline in September, housing sales in October were back on their upward trend that started last April. This sales performance and a decline in new listings contributed to tighten the sales-to-new listings ratio in October. Also, during that month, the national MLS House Price Index posted its first monthly risealbeit modestsince November 2024. Unit sales rose nationally by 0.9% (sa figures) from September to October, partially offsetting the -1.6% decline from August to September. Sales are back on the upward trend they have been exhibiting since their most recent trough in March of this year when economic uncertainty was rising with trade tensions. From the same month in 2024, sales declined -4.3% (nsa) in October. National new listings posted a -1.4% (sa) monthly decline in October, the second in a row with a -0.8% decline in the previous month. Despite these monthly declines, new listings have been generally trending up in 2025, and in October were higher by 4.3% (nsa) than in the same month in 2024. With the monthly rise in national (unit) sales and the decline in new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened (rose) by 1.2 percentage point in October to 52.2% (sa), still in the lower half of the estimated balanced conditions range for this indicator. The other indicator of market tightness we trackmonths of inventorywas at 4.4 nationally in October (sa figures), mostly stable at that level since July of this year, and below its 5.2 long-term (pre-pandemic) average. As in previous months, this market-tightness indicator was below its long-term average in most provinces, except in British Columbia and Ontario at 0.9 months above this average for both. For the first time since November 2024, the national MLS House Price Index (MLS HPI) posted a monthly rise in October, but relatively modest at +0.2% (sa). This price index declined -3.0% (nsa) from the same month last year and, from sa figures, is now 26.7% above its December 2019 level but nearly 18% below its February 2022 historical peak. From September to October 2025, sales increased in 18 of the 30 reported local markets we monitor while the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened (increased) in 17 of these markets. But as for Canada, this latter indicator of market conditions cooled in 22 of these markets. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.november-17--2025.html

Canadian home resales increased by 0.9% from September to October, the sixth increase in the last seven months. Despite the recovery in previous months, sales were still 7.5% below their most recent peak in November 2024. On the supply side, new listings declined 1.4% from September to October, a second consecutive decline. Active listings increased by 0.9% in October, following a contraction in the prior month as cancelled listings have recently moderated. Market conditions remained unchanged during the month and continued to indicate a balanced market compared to the historical average. Still, this largely reflects soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while markets in all other provinces continue to favour sellers. Housing starts fell 16.6% in October to a seven-month low of 232.8K (seasonally adjusted and annualized). The loss was concentrated in Ontario, where starts plunged 51.8% in the month, largely because of a 61.7% decline in Toronto. Vancouver also saw a decrease (-16.9% to 19.4K), while Calgary (+37.9% to 36.1K) and Montreal (+8.7% to a 16-month high of 33.6K) posted gains. The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price IndexTM rose 0.4% from September to October after seasonal adjustment, marking a third consecutive increase for this indicator. Eight of the 11 CMAs included in the index saw increases, led by Quebec City (+2.5%), Winnipeg (+1.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.4%) and Victoria (+0.6%). From October 2024 to October 2025, the composite index fell by 2.6%, on decreases in Toronto (-7.2%), Vancouver (-4.5%) and Hamilton (-4.0%). These declines were partially offset by gains in Quebec City (+15.7%), Winnipeg (+5.4%) and Edmonton (+5.3%) https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

Among the 61% who have adjusted their holiday shopping plans due to tariff concerns, one quarter (25%) started holiday shopping earlier this year to avoid potential price increases as a result of tariffs. 41% will cut back on spending this holiday season. Canadians plan on spending an average of $2,310 this holiday season. The latest BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals 61% of Canadians are changing their holiday spending plans this year in anticipation of rising costs caused by tariffs. 37% are trying to buy gifts minimally affected by tariffs, including purchasing goods made in Canada. 25% started their holiday shopping earlier to avoid potential price increases. 15% are budgeting to spend more on gifts in anticipation of higher prices. In the wake of recent tariff increases, rising unemployment, and an upturn in inflation, its not surprising that Canadian consumers are feeling a sense of trepidation heading into the holiday season, said Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist, BMO. Though not elevated, annual CPI inflation has picked up to 2.4% in September after remaining below 2% in the previous five months, partly due to a 3.8% rise in food costs. By weakening the economy, the trade war has lifted the unemployment rate, undermining consumer confidence and income growth. https://newsroom.bmo.com/2025-11-14-BMO-Survey-Three-in-Five-Canadians-Adjust-Holiday-Spending-Plans-Amid-Tariff-Concerns

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems edged up 0.9% on a month-over-month basis in October 2025, marking six monthly gains in the last seven months. After a brief pause in September, home sales across Canada picked back up again in October, rejoining the trend in place since April, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. With interest rates now almost in stimulative territory, housing markets are expected to continue to become more active heading into 2026, although this is likely to be tempered by ongoing economic uncertainty. October Highlights: National home sales climbed 0.9% month-over-month. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 4.3% below October 2024. The number of newly listed properties declined 1.4% on a month-over-month basis. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) edged up 0.2% month-over-month but was down 3% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was down 1.1% on a year-over-year basis. New supply declined 1.4% month-over-month in October. Combined with an increase in sales activity, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 52.2% compared to 51% recorded in September. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings roughly between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions. There were 189,000 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS Systems at the end of October 2025, up 7.2% from a year earlier but very close to the long-term average for that time of the year. https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/canadian-home-sales-mark-four-year-high-for-the-month-of-september-2/

As the federal government launches a new drive to address Canadas housing crisis with Build Canada Homes, a new report released today by the National Housing Council (NHC) offers a comprehensive framework to assess the effectiveness of federal housing policy. The report entitled Measuring What Matters: Proposing an Outcomes Framework for Federal Housing Policy, tackles a central question: how will Canadians know if housing policies are working? Analysing the current health of Canadas housing system, the report finds that: Affordability is declining: Home ownership is affordable in fewer than 20% of Canadian markets, and asking rents are unaffordable for most renters. Housing transitions are stalling: Canadians face increasing barriers to moving through the housing system, from renting an apartment, to moving into ownership and from a first-owned home to a family-sized unit. Equity gaps persist: Lower-income households, women, Indigenous people, racialized communities, and other equity-denied groups experience worse housing outcomes. Supply challenges are growing: Rising costs of materials, land, labour, and municipal fees, along with approval delays and labour shortages, are driving a cost-of-delivery crisis. Policy misalignment remains: Success is often measured by inputs and outputs - such as dollars spent and units built - rather than improvements in housing outcomes. Grounded in the National Housing Strategy Act and the principles of the right to adequate housing, the report states that outcomes for people are what matter most when assessing if housing policies are working. https://nhc-cnl.ca/news/post/is-canada-s-housing-policy-working-look-at-the-outcomes-for-people-says-new-report-from-the-national-housing-council-

Canada can look to international examples where consolidating and scaling the housing system have helped sustain housing supply and affordability. According to a 2016 McKinsey report, the construction industry remains one of the least digitized sectors. Out of 22 industries reviewed, construction ranked second to last just ahead ofhunting and agriculture. Nearly a decade later, little progress has been made in how we build homes. Canadas housing sector feels stuck in an everlasting hunting-gathering era, resisting modernization. A large part of the solution to digitize our housing industry lies in scaling up to generate sufficient financial, human and technological resources to innovate. Canada can learn from the Netherlands, which has achieved scale in the housing sector, including with not-for-profit affordable housing providers. In 2024, Canada had 40,349 businesses that employed workers in the residential construction industry. Of these, only 6 businesses had more than 500 employees. The majority (69.5%) were micro businesses with just 1 to 4 employees. The same trend applies to the real estate lease management industry. While specific data for residential leasing is not available through the Canadian Industry Statistics, broader data for the real estate leasing and management sector tell a clear story: Of the 30,099 businesses that employ workers, 81.4% had less than 5 employees. By comparison, 59.2% of businesses across the entire economy fall into the micro-business category. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2025/unlocking-housing-supply-why-scale-really-matters

Highlights Missing Middle is a broad term for gentle- to-medium-density housing types such as accessory suites, multiplexes, row homes, stacked townhouses and low-rise apartments. These housing types are often underrepresented in new supply. Missing Middle housing starts across Canadas 6 major cities (Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, Ottawa and Montral) increased by an average of 5% per year between 2018 and 2023. This was followed by an exceptional 44% surge between 2023 and 2024. Edmonton and Calgary lead the way in Missing Middle housing starts, supported by a lower regulatory burden, abundant land availability and favourable policy environments. Meanwhile, Toronto and Vancouver lag where denser forms of housing have historically been more feasible. The prevalence, type and location of new Missing Middle housing construction projects vary widely across cities. Factors such as land costs, developer expertise and evolving local policies play a key role. This report shares insights into the creation of Missing Middle housing options since 2018 in Canadas 6 major cities: Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, Ottawa and Montral. Missing Middle housing is important as it provides a layer of supply that can be delivered within existing neighbourhoods. It can often be faster to develop especially when rezoning isnt needed and requires less capital investment than larger projects. It broadens housing choices for families who cant afford single-detached homes and find high-rise apartments do not offer enough space for their needs. Stakeholders, particularly policymakers at the municipal government level, working to encourage this kind of development, can benefit from understanding its prevalence in their communities. They can also gain insights into what built form it takes, its location and the reasons behind regional differences. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2025/how-common-missing-middle-housing-development-canada

The Canadian economy is adjusting to steep US tariffs on several industries and coping with elevated uncertainty. Tariffs have led to a fall in the demand for Canadian goods, affecting the broader economy. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is also leading to higher costs. Total inflation has been around 2%, while underlying inflation has continued to be about 2%. With US tariffs and limited Canadian counter-tariffs in place, the effects of the trade conflict on growth and inflation in Canada are becoming clearer. Exports to the United States have fallen, and business investment has declined. The structural shift in the Canada-US trade relationship has put the economy on a lower path. At the same time, the reconfiguration of global trade and the restructuring of the Canadian economy are adding costs and putting upward pressure on inflation. Considerable uncertainty remains around US tariffs and how changes to global trade relationships will affect economic growth and consumer prices in Canada. This uncertainty includes the review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. How other major structural changessuch as shifting demographics and the adoption of artificial intelligencewill affect the Canadian economy is also unclear. The effects of these developments on output and inflation will play out over many years. Monetary policy cannot offset the long-term implications of US tariffs or other sources of structural change. The primary focus of monetary policy is to maintain low and stable inflation. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/mpr/mpr-2025-10-29/overview/

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks. While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027. In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. Canadas economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/10/fad-press-release-2025-10-29/

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems declined by 1.7% on a month-over-month basis in September 2025, ending a string of gains that began in April. That said, it was still the best month of September for sales since 2021. The small monthly decline was the result of lower sales activity in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, and Montreal, which more than offset gains in the Greater Toronto Area and Winnipeg. While the trend of rising sales that began earlier this year took a breather in September, activity was still running at the highest level for that month since 2021, and that was true in July and August as well, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. With three years of pent-up demand still out there and more normal interest rates finally here, the forecast continues to be for further upward momentum in home sales over the final quarter of the year and into 2026. September Highlights: National home sales declined 1.7% month-over-month. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 5.2% above September 2024. The number of newly listed properties edged down 0.8% on a month-over-month basis. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was little changed (-0.1%) month-over-month and was down 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price ticked up 0.7% on a year-over-year basis. https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/canadian-home-sales-mark-four-year-high-for-the-month-of-september/

Home sales decreased by 1.7% from August to September at the national level, the first contraction following five consecutive monthly increases. On the supply side, new listings edged down 0.8% from August to September, the first decline in three months. Active listings decreased by 1.7% in September, the third contraction in four months as cancelled listings continue to be elevated. Market conditions remained unchanged during the month and continue to indicate a balanced market compared to the historical average. Still, the balanced market conditions at the national level largely reflect soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while markets in all other provinces continue to favour sellers. Housing starts rose by 34.7K from 244.5K in August to 279.2K in September (seasonally adjusted and annualized). This increase offsets some of the 48.6K decline seen in August and brings starts above consensus expectation of 257.5K. Starts rose in urban areas (+34.9K to 254.3K), while they remained essentially unchanged in rural areas (-0.2K to 24.9K). In urban centres, the gain stemmed mainly from the multi-unit segment (+34.0K to 213.3K), while the increase in the single-detached segment was more muted (+0.9K to 41.0K). The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 0.2% from August to September after seasonal adjustment. Six of the 11 CMAs included in the index saw increases: Montreal (+2.4%), Quebec City (1.3%), Hamilton (+1.3%), Halifax (+1.1%), Vancouver (+0.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.1%). Conversely, prices declined in Winnipeg (-1.2%), Calgary (-0.8%), Toronto (-0.3%) and Edmonton (-0.1%), while they remained stable in Victoria. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

By TD Economics 2025 is shaping up to be a modestly better year than expected in our prior forecast. However, our provincial growth rankings are largely unchanged. Observed weakness in large manufacturing bases in Central Canada is as expected, while idiosyncratic factors are driving firmer performances elsewhere. Exports coast-to-coast dipped in the second quarter following a front-running of export activity to the U.S. the quarter prior. The outlook for Canadian trade has marginally improved as effective tariff rates have come in lower than our expectations. Across provinces, nominal exports to the U.S. from Quebec, Saskatchewan and Alberta have underperformed the nation as a whole. Evidence of an export rotation to non-U.S. markets is limited, with Ontario, Alberta, Newfoundland and PEI showing some promise. All provinces have taken steps towards the removal of interprovincial trade barriers. Ontario has arguably gone the furthest, followed by Nova Scotia, Manitoba, B.C. and PEI. Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick have been more cautious. These encouraging developments could help offset some of the disruption caused by the Canada U.S.-trade war, but the scale of the boost could be limited. Notably, geographic barriers still exist, and not all provinces have trade agreements in place. Were retaining our view that Canadian housing will continue its recovery, fueled by pent-up demand in B.C. and Ontario, although loose conditions will restrain the extent of price gains in these two markets. Activity remains considerably firmer outside of these two markets, with mid-to-high single-digit price growth performances on tap in the Atlantic, most of the Prairies and Quebec this year and next. Canadas job market has recently shed over 100k jobs, driving the national unemployment rate to a cyclical high. Ontario has disproportionately absorbed the shock so far this year as its unemployment rate has risen faster than in other regions. We expect unemployment rates to drift lower as employment mildly improves and labour force growth stalls on the back of a standstill in population growth. Commodity producing provinces are still better positioned to weather trade-related headwinds. Production of key commodities in Alberta, BC, and Saskatchewan continues to trend higher as market demand has yet to wane. Some prices, particularly crude oil, have softened relative to our last forecast, but a broad-based mild recovery in commodity prices is expected through next year. https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast

By TD Economics Despite all the twists and turns in U.S. trade policy, our forecast for the global economy is broadly unchanged from our June view. Ditto for the U.S. economy, at least on the surface. Consumers have pulled back as the labor market has cooled, but that has been offset by strong business investment. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates further to support the labor market that has cooled further than previously believed. Canadas exports have been hit hard by U.S. tariffs, but consumer spending has shown surprising resilience buoyed in part by a pull-forward in auto purchases and in the face of tariffs. Interest rate cuts have contributed to an uptick in housing activity broadly but are no panacea for the structural headwinds that will continue to weigh on Canadas economy. Economists are still suffering from whiplash following the twists and turns of U.S. trade policy. But despite all the back and forth, our forecast for the global economy is broadly unchanged from our view in June. Global growth is on track to advance 3.1% this year, with a slight slowdown in the cards for 2026. In the euro area, GDP rose at a 0.4% annualized pace in Q2, slightly above expectations but sharply slower than the 2.4% pace in Q1. China expanded 5.2% year-on-year in Q2, stronger than forecast, though weak credit growth and continued property stress point to softer momentum in the second half. Japans economy grew at a 1.0% annualized rate, beating expectations. On the trade front, risks have eased for now: the U.S. capped tariffs on the EU at 15% in July, the U.S. extended their truce with China and Mexico in August for 90 days, and the U.S. and Japan reached a limited accord preserving market access. Yet frictions persist, with China imposing new duties on European agricultural goods, and there remains considerable uncertainty around the direction of trade policy once temporary truces expire and if the U.S. Supreme Court rules against the legality of IEEPA tariffs. Front running leading up to President Trumps reciprocal tariff deadline, originally set for July but subsequently delayed, led to a pull-forward of industrial output and inventory builds. This will likely result in a choppy pace of growth across both advanced and emerging markets depending on trade exposures. The result is a global economy that continues to advance on average, but at an unspectacular pace with divergence among countries. This modest pace is supported by domestic demand and services but constrained by weak goods trade and unsettled policy risks. https://economics.td.com/ca-quarterly-economic-forecast

From Scotiabank National housing sales posted a fifth consecutive increase in August. The sales-to-new listings ratio edged down nationally from July to August as new listings rose at a faster pace than sales. The national MLS House Price Index declined mildly in August, hence still on its downward trend since summer of 2023. Housing sales rose 1.1% (sa) nationally from July to August, the fifth consecutive monthly gain since their most recent trough in March of this year. The cumulative increase in national sales since March is 12.5%, but they were 7.4% weaker in August than their most recent peak achieved last November. In August, national sales rose 1.9% (nsa) from their level in the same month of 2024. New listings increased 2.6% from July to August (sa) and by 6.1% (nsa) since August 2024. They have been mostly trending up since early 2023 and were approaching in August their level just before the Bank of Canada started tightening its policy rate in March 2022. With the rising pace of national new listings exceeding that of sales in August, the national sales-to-new listings ratio edged down from 52% in July to 51.2% in August. This indicator of housing market conditions has been in the lower half of our estimated balanced conditions range (of between 44.7 and 66.1%) since 2025 began. The other indicator of market conditionsmonths of inventorystayed unchanged from July to August at 4.4 (sa figures), still below its pre-pandemic long-term average of 5.2. This indicator of market conditions has eased since its most recent trough in November 2024 when it was at 3.7. The national MLS House Price Index (HPI) edged down -0.1% (sa) from July to August with all unit types contributing to this monthly decline, except for 1-storey singles (+0.2%). 2-storey singles and apartment units both posted a -0.2% monthly decline in August while townhouse units declined -0.3%. From August 2024 to August 2025, the MLS HPI declined -3.4% (nsa), and all unit types contributed to this annual decline. The largest annual declines were observed for apartments (-5.3%) and townhouses (-4.6%) while the smallest decline was observed for 1-storey single units (-1.1%). The National MLS HPI in August was near 18% below its March 2022 level (sa figures)the month when the Bank of Canada started tightening its policy stanceand more than 26% above its pre-pandemic (December 2019) level. Sales increased in about 60% of local markets we track from July to August while new listings increased in near 55% of them. Market conditionsas measured by the sales-to-new listings ratioeased in just below 50% of these local markets over this period. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.september-15--2025.html

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems edged up 1.1% on a month-over-month basis in August 2025. It was the best month of August for sales since 2021, and the fifth straight monthly increase in activity, making for a cumulative 12.5% since March. Unlike in recent months, when gains were led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), sales in the GTA were down slightly in August, but this was more than offset by higher sales in Montreal, Greater Vancouver and Ottawa. Activity has continued to gradually pick up steam over the last five months, but the experience from a year ago suggests that trend could accelerate this fall, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. Part of what drives sales at different points in the year is the availability of a lot of fresh property listings for buyers to buy. For the fall market, that always happens right at the beginning of September, and this year was no exception. If last year is any kind of guide, then there is the potential that sales could really pick up in the next month or so depending on how many buyers are drawn off the sidelines, particularly if we see a September rate cut by the Bank of Canada. August Highlights: National home sales were up 1.1% month-over-month. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 1.9% above August 2024. The number of newly listed properties climbed 2.6% on a month-over-month basis. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was little changed (-0.1%) month-over-month and was down 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price rose 1.8% on a year-over-year basis. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%. After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing. In the United States, business investment has been strong but consumers are cautious and employment gains have slowed. US inflation has picked up in recent months as businesses appear to be passing on some tariff costs to consumer prices. Growth in the euro area has moderated as US tariffs affect trade. Chinas economy held up in the first half of the year but growth appears to be softening as investment weakens. Global oil prices are close to their levels assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased further, with higher equity prices and lower bond yields. Canadas exchange rate has been stable relative to the US dollar. Canadas GDP declined by about 1% in the second quarter, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity. Exports fell by 27% in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from first-quarter gains when companies were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs. Business investment also declined in the second quarter. Consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace. In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending. Employment has declined in the past two months since the Banks July MPR was published. Job losses have largely been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, while employment growth in the rest of the economy has slowed, reflecting weak hiring intentions. The unemployment rate has moved up since March, hitting 7.1% in August, and wage growth has continued to ease. CPI inflation was 1.9% in August, the same as at the time of the July MPR. Excluding taxes, inflation was 2.4%. Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated. A broader range of indicators, including alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes across CPI components, continue to suggest underlying inflation is running around 2%. The federal governments recent decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs on imported goods from the US will mean less upward pressure on the prices of these goods going forward. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/09/fad-press-release-2025-09-17/

Highlights Combined housing starts across Canadas 7 key census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in the first half of 2025 were just a few units below 2024 levels and near all-time highs. However, this overall stability masked sharp regional differences. Gains in Calgary, Edmonton, Montral and Ottawa were offset by declines in Toronto, Vancouver and Halifax. Ground-oriented construction including single-detached, semi-detached and row homes saw a modest growth, driven by lower mortgage rates unlocking demand in more affordable markets. In higher-cost centres, like Toronto and Vancouver, affordability remained strained and homebuyers cautious amid economic uncertainty. Condominium apartment starts declined in most key markets as slower presales led to project delays and cancellations. Meanwhile, purpose-built rental starts surged, bolstered by government support and a shift among developers toward the rental market. Active and new listings, which represent the other key component of housing supply, were either stable (Edmonton and Montral) or rising (Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary, Ottawa and Halifax). Combined with strong housing completions, they have contributed to an increase in the overall supply in Canadas key markets. Ongoing construction slowdowns in select CMAs pose risks to future housing supply, workforce retention and affordability. In the context of trade tensions, economic uncertainty and slower population growth, we expect combined starts across the 7 major CMAs to recover only gradually, with modest improvement by 2027. CMHC

A new TD survey reveals how todays increasingly complex market is shaping the way Canadians approach one of lifes biggest financial decisions: their mortgage. While the majority of Canadians feel informed about the mortgage process, the survey shows that economic volatility, rate unpredictability, and tariff pressures are prompting many to rethink their strategies, highlighting that expert guidance is a vital tool to navigate the challenges of todays environment. Canadians are navigating interest rate uncertainty While the Bank of Canada has held rates steady in recent months, Canadians remain divided on where rates could head next. The survey found that 32 per cent expect rates to rise, 27 per cent anticipate a decrease, and 29 per cent believe theyll remain unchanged. This lack of consensus reflects the challenges Canadians face when making long-term financial decisions in a rapidly shifting landscape. With so much uncertainty around what comes next, Canadians are thinking carefully about how best to approach their mortgage, says Patrick Smith, VP, Product Management, Real Estate Secured Lending at TD. Expert advice can help bring clarity to that complexity, so Canadians can make confident, informed choices aligned with their needs and long-term goals. Economic pressures add even more complexity Beyond rate expectations, Canadians are increasingly aware of how broad economic shifts may influence their homeownership goals. Tariffs, in particular, are playing a key role in how Canadians make decisions about their mortgage. According to the survey, nearly a third (29 per cent) of Canadians say that tariffs have caused them to reassess their mortgage strategy. The survey also found: 31 per cent say that tariffs have impacted their borrowing capacity; 28 per cent agree that tariffs have caused them to reconsider taking out a mortgage; 28 per cent agree that tariffs have impacted which mortgage lender they are choosing or plan to choose. https://stories.td.com/ca/en/news/2025-08-20-market-uncertainty-leaves-canadians-divided-2c-expert-advice-b

Top factors influencing decisions on whether to have children include financial stability and finding the right partner. Nearly nine-in-ten find balancing the emotional and financial demands of parenthood challenging. The latest BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals seven-in-ten Gen Z (70%) and Millennials (69%) want to have children but worry doing so would negatively affect their financial security. While 81% of Canadians say being a parent brings joy and fulfillment to their lives, over half (53%) of parents admit having children compromised their financial security. The BMO survey examines how the financial and emotional challenges related to raising children in the current economic environment are shaping parenting decisions and found: Family Defining Decisions: Financial stability (44%) is the top consideration influencing Canadians decision on whether to have children, followed by finding the right partner (34%), the ability to be fully present for their child(ren) (27%), mental and physical health (24%) and career goals and/or prospects (17%). Over a third (35%) would reconsider their decision not to have children if there was less of a negative effect on their finances. Family Size Aspirations: On average, aspiring parents want two children, but that number rises to three if financial constraints are removed. Emotional Toll of Parenthood: 89% say balancing the emotional and financial demands of parenthood is challenging and over half (55%) regularly feel overwhelmed by their familys financial responsibilities a sentiment felt most profoundly among Gen Z (72%) and Millennials (72%). Keeping Up with the Jones: Over three quarters (76%) admit there is pressure for parents to keep up with other families by spending more than they should. Long-Term Implications: 86% report that everyday childcare costs including daycare, after-school programs, and school supplies, negatively affect their ability to save for long-term goals such as higher education or homeownership. https://newsroom.bmo.com/2025-08-13-BMO-Survey-Gen-Z-and-Millennials-Face-Challenges-Raising-a-Family-Amid-Rising-Financial-Pressures

Home sales increased by 3.8% from June to July at the national level, the fourth consecutive advance following four monthly contractions. On the supply side, new listings remained roughly stable (+0.1%) from June to July. Active listings decreased by 0.7%, the second monthly decline in a row as cancelled listings continued to be elevated. Overall, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) edged down for the third month in a row from 4.6 in June to 4.4 in July. Market conditions tightened during the month but remained balanced compared to the historical average. The balanced market conditions at the national level largely reflect soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while markets in all other provinces continue to favour sellers. Housing starts increased by 10.6K from 283.5K in June to 294.1K in July (seasonally adjusted and annualized) after being roughly stable over the past two months. Starts were well above the consensus expectation of 265.0K. Starts increased in urban areas (+12.4K to 273.6K), while they declined in rural areas (-1.9K to 20.5K). In urban centres, starts in the multi-unit segment increased (+12.4K to 231.1K) while they remained roughly stable in the single-detached segment (+0.2K to 42.5K). The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 0.8% from June to July, after adjusting for seasonal effects. Seven of the 11 CMAs included in the index experienced decreases: Hamilton (-2.5%), Winnipeg (-1.2%), Toronto (-1.1%), Vancouver (-0.7%), Calgary (-0.5%), Montreal (-0.5%) and Edmonton (-0.1%). Conversely, prices rose in Quebec City (+1.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.3%) and Victoria (+0.1%), while they remained stable in Halifax. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems climbed 3.8% on a month-over-month basis in July 2025. Building on gains recorded over the previous three months, transactions are now up a cumulative 11.2% since March. The July increase in home sales was again led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where transactions, while still historically low, have now rebounded a cumulative 35.5% since March. With sales posting a fourth consecutive increase in July, and almost 4% at that, the long-anticipated post-inflation crisis pickup in housing seems to have finally arrived, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. Looking ahead a little bit, it will be interesting to see how buyers react to the burst of new supply that typically shows up in the first half of September. July Highlights: National home sales were up 3.8% month-over-month. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 6.6% above July 2024. The number of newly listed properties was unchanged (+0.1%) on a month-over-month basis. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was unchanged month-over-month and was down 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price edged up 0.6% on a year-over-year basis. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

From CMHC Getting more rental housing built requires a balance between increasing returns to investors and protecting tenants. But tighter rent control is often not the solution. Addressing housing affordability is critical for Canada. Owning a home has become so expensive in some cities that renting has become the only viable option for many. Over recent years weve had low vacancy rates, and tenants moving to new units see sharp rent increases. We need a substantial and sustained increase in the supply of rental units over the long term. Many, however, express misgivings about private-sector involvement. They are concerned that private landlords may charge higher rents or take advantage of their tenants. Government-supplied rental units or rent control are seen as solutions. Are these concerns valid and are solutions appropriate? What can be learned from research on increasing private-sector rental supply while protecting tenants? Our research found no firm evidence that private-sector ownership led to undue increases in rents. In addition, the international literature suggests that rent control risks lowering housing supply in the long term. Based on recent surveys, the annual eviction rate for renters in Canada is estimated at between 1% and 3%. Having effective tenant protection is important, balanced with harnessing private-sector investment in the rental sector. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2025/accelerating-rental-supply-incentivizing-development-safeguarding-tenants

Statistics Canadas Distributions of Household Economic Accounts (DHEA) contains a treasure chest of interesting facts and figures on the financial position of households. One trend that stood out for several quarters now is the steady decline in average mortgage balances of young families, even as mortgage debt has continued to rise for all other age groups. Since the peak in Q3 2022, average mortgage balances among households where the primary earner is under 35 years of age have fallen by $15.5k. Compared to Q1 2023, the reduction stands at $11k. Over the same period, mortgage balances increased by $18k for households aged 55-64 and by $4k for those aged 65 and older. The drop among younger borrowers appears to be at least partly explained by a decline in young people entering the housing market or opting for less expensive homes due to affordability challenges. Household formation in this age group has surged, growing at 2.5 times faster than other age groups in the last two years yet many of these new households remain renters. According to Statistics Canada 2024 Canadian Social Survey more than half of young people reporting being very concerned about their ability to afford housing. Home ownership remains elusive for younger generations with 35% of young adults renting, compared to 23% of older aged group. https://economics.td.com/ca-young-families-shrinking-mortgage

Canadas housing market will continue to cool in 2025 due to trade tensions, economic uncertainty, slower population growth and increasing unemployment. Home prices are expected to fall around 2%, with larger drops in Ontario and British Columbia as buyers and developers take a wait-and-see approach. Affordability remains a major issue and new construction is slowing. Rental markets are easing slightly as more supply comes online and demand softens. A gradual recovery is expected in 2026 as trade tensions ease and economic conditions improve. Highlights Trade tensions and slower population growth are contributing to a likely modest recession in 2025, dampening business and consumer confidence and slowing housing activity. Home prices are expected to fall 2% in 2025 with larger drops in Ontario and British Columbia. Developers are delaying projects due to high costs, weak demand, and uncertainty. A gradual recovery in the housing market is expected in 2026 as trade frictions ease, economic confidence improves and economic growth resumes. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2025/summer-update-2025-housing-market-outlook

By TD Economics An average mortgage holder who has recently renewed, or is about to, is likely absorbing an increase in monthly payments. Media headlines are raising alarm bells that the ongoing wave of mortgage renewals is a looming shock. So, it may come as a surprise to learn that aggregate mortgage payments in Canada are actually declining. Lets unpack how both dynamics can be true at the same time. First, the part thats well understood: many households are facing higher payments. The most popular mortgage term is five years. So as an example, a borrower with a $500,000 mortgage who locked in a 2.5% mortgage rate in June 2020 would now be renewing at a rate closer to 4.0%, with monthly payments rising by about $320. According to a Bank of Canada report published earlier this year, about 60% of outstanding mortgages will renew by the end of 2026, and 40% are expected to renew at higher rates. This is the looming mortgage shock the media is warning about. Yet nationally as odd as it may sound aggregate mortgage payments are on the decline, driven by lower mortgage rates. We forecasted this in our November 2024 report, and the data has since confirmed the outcome. In the final two quarter of last year, mortgage interest payments declined by an average of 1.7%, providing enough relief to push total mortgage payments into contraction. How can this contradiction seemingly exist? The answer lies in the composition. https://economics.td.com/ca-mortgage-renewals

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable. Against this backdrop, the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) does not present conventional base case projections for GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, it presents a current tariff scenario based on tariffs in place or agreed as of July 27, and two alternative scenariosone with an escalation and another with a de-escalation of tariffs. While US tariffs have created volatility in global trade, the global economy has been reasonably resilient. In the United States, the pace of growth moderated in the first half of 2025, but the labour market has remained solid. US CPI inflation ticked up in June with some evidence that tariffs are starting to be passed on to consumer prices. The euro area economy grew modestly in the first half of the year. In China, the decline in exports to the United States has been largely offset by an increase in exports to the rest of the world. Global oil prices are close to their levels in April despite some volatility. Global equity markets have risen, and corporate credit spreads have narrowed. Longer-term government bond yields have moved up. Canadas exchange rate has appreciated against a broadly weaker US dollar. The current tariff scenario has global growth slowing modestly to around 2% by the end of 2025 before returning to around 3% over 2026 and 2027. In Canada, US tariffs are disrupting trade but overall, the economy is showing some resilience so far. After robust growth in the first quarter of 2025 due to a pull-forward in exports to get ahead of tariffs, GDP likely declined by about 1.5% in the second quarter. This contraction is mostly due to a sharp reversal in exports following the pull-forward, as well as lower US demand for Canadian goods due to tariffs. Growth in business and household spending is being restrained by uncertainty. Labour market conditions have weakened in sectors affected by trade, but employment has held up in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up gradually since the beginning of the year to 6.9% in June and wage growth has continued to ease. A number of economic indicators suggest excess supply in the economy has increased since January. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/07/fad-press-release-2025-07-30/

A special report from the BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals concerns about the cost of living and economic uncertainty have not cooled Canadians summer travel plans, with 62% planning on spending the same amount or more on vacations and travel this summer compared to 2024. Nearly four in five Canadians (77%) plan on travelling this summer, with an average budget of $3,825, which includes the cost of flights, hotels and accommodations, rentals, gas and food. The survey examined how Canadians are preparing for their summer vacation plans and found: 59% are opting to travel within Canada to save money. More than half (55%) have altered their vacation plans due to rising costs and inflation. 46% have reduced their spending throughout the year to afford their summer vacation plans. Nearly a third (32%) admit to compromising their long-term savings to afford travel plans. The BMO Real Financial Progress Index also explores Canadians summer spending plans and forecasts: Warming up for wedding season: 34% plan on spending the same amount or more on weddings for family and friends this summer compared to last year. Over half (54%) do not plan on spending on weddings for family and friends this summer. Storm of celebrations and steady spending: Two in five (39%) plan on spending the same amount or more on special events, including graduations and showers this summer than they did in 2024. Less than half (48%) do not have plans to spend on special events this summer. Family activity budgets feel the heat: 29% will spend the same amount or more on summer camps and childcare compared to 2024. 61% have no plans to spend on summer camps and childcare this year. Sawdust and sunshine: 42% will spend the same amount or more on home renovations. 44% do not have home renovation plans during the summer. Sunny with a chance of splurging: Nearly a third (30%) plan on spending the same amount or more for a large purchase including a home, a car, a boat, etc. 57% do not plan on making a large purchase this summer. https://about.bmo.com/bmo-survey-summer-travel-spending-heats-up-despite-economic-concerns/

Summary Home sales increased by 2.8% from May to June at the national level, a third advance following four monthly contractions. On the supply side, new listings decreased by 2.9% from May to June. Active listings remained on their upward trend for a sixth month in a row, increasing by 0.6% in June despite still elevated cancelled listings. Overall, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) edged down for the second month in a row from 4.8 in May to 4.7 in June. Market conditions tightened marginally during the month but remained balanced compared to the historical average. The balanced market conditions at the national level largely reflect particularly soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while markets in all other provinces continue to favour sellers. Housing starts remained roughly stable for a second month in a row (+1.0K) in June at 283.7K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a print well above the median economist forecast calling for 262.5K units. Starts in both urban (+0.8K to 261.7K) and rural (+0.3K to 22.0K) areas were roughly flat during the month. In urban centres, both starts in the multi-unit (+0.4K to 219.0K) and single-detached segments (+0.3K to 42.7K) were flat as well. The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index declined by 0.5% from May to June after seasonal adjustment. Six of the 11 CMAs included in the index saw declines: Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.2%), Calgary (-1.0%), Hamilton (-0.9%), Toronto (-0.8%), Vancouver (-0.8%), and Victoria (-0.5%). In contrast, prices rose in Halifax (+2.0%), Winnipeg (+1.6%), Edmonton (+1.6%), Quebec City (+0.5%), and Montreal (+0.3%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems rose 2.8% on a month-over-month basis in June 2025, building on the 3.5% gain recorded in May. Over the past two months, the recovery in sales activity was led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where transactions, while remaining historically low, have rebounded a cumulative 17.3% since April. At the national level, June was pretty close to a carbon copy of May, with sales up about 3% on a month-over-month basis and prices once again holding steady, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. Its another month of data suggesting the anticipated rebound in Canadian housing markets may have only been delayed by a few months, following a chaotic start to the year; although with the latest 35% tariff threat, were not out of the woods yet. June Highlights: National home sales were up 2.8% month-over-month. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 3.5% above June 2024. The number of newly listed properties fell 2.9% on a month-over-month basis. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was almost unchanged (-0.2%) month-over-month and was down 3.7% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was down 1.3% on a year-over-year basis. https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/canadian-home-sales-up-again-in-june-national-prices-holding-steady/

This Rental Market Update report provides an update on rental market conditions across Canada building on insights from our 2024 Rental Market Report, using alternative data sources. It also includes insights obtained through market intelligence from industry experts. Highlights Since October 2024, advertised rents are declining due to increased supply, while rents for occupied dwellings continue to rise at a slower pace than a year ago. Sluggish job markets and decelerating migration are creating challenging environments for landlords and property managers. Purpose-built rental supply is growing. CMHC construction financing programs and products supported an estimated 88% of Canadas new purpose-built rental apartment starts in 2024. Vacancy rates are expected to rise in most major markets this year. Despite easing rent growth and increasing supply, rental affordability isnt improving especially in Vancouver and Toronto as turnover rents are driving increases. Calgary, however, has shown a slight improvement. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2025/2025-mid-year-rental-market-update

From Scotiabank HIGHLIGHTS Nearly all Canadian provinces are poised for slowdowns in 2025. While the Canadian economy started the year with solid momentum, growth is expected to decelerate over the course of the year in the wake of the U.S. trade war and changes to Canadian immigration policy. Rising unemployment and lower population growth will weigh on consumption growth, and housing market activity has slowed as households delay major purchases. Exports are likely to decline due to the tariffs and spillovers from slower U.S. growth. We expect growth in central Canada to underperform the national average, given these provinces higher exposure to trade risks. While we continue to think a recession will be avoided, there is a high degree of uncertainty as to how the tariffs will ultimately impact the economyin addition to the possibility of new tariffs. Policy measures from the federal and provincial governments could provide a boost to economic activity, especially over the medium-term. That said, the tariffs and impact of elevated uncertainty are likely to weigh on growth in all regions of the country in the near-term, and compound the effects of sharply reduced population growth. Household spending growth is likely to slow. Household consumption started the year with strong momentum, aided by 225 basis points of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada between June 2024 and March 2025. Despite the tariffs and uncertainty that emerged early this year, retail sales in Q1 were solid again in aggregate, though this was to some extent driven by vehicle sales being pulled forward to March to avoid tariffs coming into effect in April, and indicated weakness in the most tariff-exposed economies of Ontario and Quebec. April and May data indicate that vehicle sales are slowing in Q2 and we expect this to continue throughout the year. In addition, drag from mortgage resets at higher interest rates is likely to continue, as we expect the Bank of Canada to hold off on further rate cuts until next year. The housing market has softened. Sales of existing homes slowed after the onset of the trade war in some provincesespecially the most expensive markets of B.C. and Ontario. However, housing market activity in the provinces east of Ontario has been remarkably resilient. New housing starts in B.C. and Ontario continue to trend lower, but residential construction contributed positively to growth in Q1 in most provinces, especially Saskatchewan. Abating economic uncertainty would release pent-up demand, especially in Ontario and B.C., where current sales rates remain below fundamental levels and new housing starts have been trending lower for some time. Falling interest rates would provide a further tailwind to residential activity, as will new government initiatives to support housing construction. That said, lower immigration will reduce some demand for housing, especially in the largest cities, which have long seen more than their fair share of newcomers to Canada. Additionally, the federal government has removed the GST first-time home buyers of new homes valued up to $1 mn, and reduced the GST on new homes between $11.5 mn for first-time home buyers. This policy will add to housing demand, however other factors such as tariff uncertainty and softer labour markets are likely to dominate in the near-term. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.the-provinces.scotiabank-s-provincial-outlook--june-27--2025-.html

From CMHC Canada faces a housing affordability challenge. For many years, housing prices and rents in Vancouver and Toronto attracted attention from all over the world. Over time, these increases came to burden many Canadians and their children. Low-income and some middle-class households struggle to even find a place to live, let alone at a price they can afford. On a wider scale, the productivity of the Canadian economy suffers from unaffordable housing as the capacity to attract skilled workers is diminished and the young are deterred from staying in our largest cities partly because of the lack of attainable housing. And Canadas enormous level of household debt creates a vulnerability in the event of a global economic crisis. Preview of results We find that housing starts need to double over the next decade. Compared to a projected rate of about 250,000 new housing units annually until 2035, Canada needs to increase housing starts to around 430,000 to 480,000 units per year to restore affordability (depending on parameters). This can only be possible with: a significantly greater workforce more private-sector investment changes in technology and productivity such as more automation and modular construction The need to increase housing supply remains critical. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/accelerate-supply/canadas-housing-supply-shortages-a-new-framework

In the first quarter of 2025, Vancouver was the census metropolitan area (CMA) with the highest average asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment, at $3,170, followed by Toronto ($2,690), Victoria ($2,680) and Ottawa ($2,490). By comparison, Montral ranked 17th, with an average asking rent of $1,930. Smaller CMAs in Quebec recorded the lowest average asking rents, including Drummondville ($1,200) and Sherbrooke ($1,250). Because prospective renters typically face higher rents compared with long-term tenantswhose rents reflect past leases and can also be subject to rent control regulationsasking rents offer a picture of current market trends. Asking rents in Montral increased nearly 71% from 2019 to the first quarter of 2025 The CMAs of Drummondville and Sherbrooke, which had the lowest average asking rents in the first quarter of 2025 were those that saw the largest increase in average asking rents for two-bedroom apartments from the first quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2025. During this period, the average asking rent increased from $600 to $1,200 in Drummondville and from $660 to $1,250 in Sherbrooke. Montral also experienced a marked increase in average asking rent from 2019 to the first quarter of 2025. Starting at $1,130 in 2019, asking rent in this CMA grew by 70.8% to reach $1,930 in the first quarter of 2025. By contrast, the CMAs with the highest average asking rents experienced slower relative growth from 2019 to the first quarter of 2025. The Toronto CMA saw overall 5.1% growth in the asking rent of two-bedroom units, increasing from $2,560 in the first quarter of 2019 to $2,690 in the first quarter of 2025. Average asking rents in Toronto declined during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by an increase to reach a peak of $2,920 in the second half of 2023. In the first quarter of 2025, average asking rents subsequently decreased by 5.6% year over year in Toronto. Vancouver followed a similar pattern as Toronto, although it experienced comparatively stronger growth. Average asking rent for two-bedroom apartments increased by 27.3% from the first quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2025 (from $2,490 to $3,170). In this CMA, average asking rents started increasing in early 2021 to reach a peak of $3,580 in the third quarter of 2023, then decreased by 7.8% from the first quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250625/dq250625b-eng.htm

By TD Economics Highlights Weve modestly upgraded our home sales growth forecasts for the second half of the year across Canada. This represents the assumption that pent-up demand that was sidelined in a weaker-than-expected first half returns to the market. The data is cooperating with this narrative, with Canadian home sales up 4% m/m in May after inching higher in April. However, uncertainty remains elevated, and job markets are deteriorating. As such, even if sales levels improve, they are likely to remain subdued, particularly in B.C. and Ontario. Weve nudged up our average home price growth forecasts in markets outside of B.C. and Ontario for the back half of the year, as sales gains interact with supply/demand balances that favour sellers in these regions. Were retaining our view that quarterly price growth will be the firmest in the Prairies in the second half of 2025. In contrast, 2025H2 home price growth is seen as declining, on average, in B.C. and Ontario. Supply/demand balance indicators suggest that there is too little demand chasing too much supply in these markets, leaving buyers with some power in negotiations. We could see a compositional boost to prices (i.e. sturdier sales gains for more expensive properties that upwardly pressure average prices), particularly in Ontario, however. This reflects the assumption of some underperformance in the less-expensive GTA condo market due to weak investor demand. Were expecting stronger growth in Canadian home sales and average home prices in 2026, backed by an improving economy, reduced uncertainty, and a modest downdraft in yields from their current levels. However, the scale of bounce-back in Canadian average home prices will likely be restrained by poor affordability in key markets like B.C. and Ontario. Whats more, population growth should remain weak next year, restraining rent gains and preventing any notable recovery in investor demand. We expect the federal governments housing plan to boost supply. However, given that the federal budget will only land this fall, along with lags inherent in the homebuilding process, we wouldnt expect a material boost to housing completions until perhaps late next year (at the earliest). Absent a steep recession, any significant improvement in housing affordability would take time and require a sustained ramp up housing construction. https://economics.td.com/ca-provincial-housing-outlook

Highlights Mortgage lenders entered 2025 in a healthy position, but economic uncertainty is increasing risk to the residential mortgage market. At the household level, unemployment is the most common cause of late mortgage payments. Variable rate mortgages became the most popular mortgage type in early 2025, reaching 42% of new mortgages in February, as the premium for variable-rate mortgages largely disappeared. Terms between 3 and less than 5 years were also still popular with new borrowers (32%). This speeds up the impact of future interest rate changes on borrower payments. New borrowers have taken advantage of lower interest rates to reduce their monthly payments. They havent shortened their amortization periods to the levels prior to the increase in interest rates. Mortgage lending by the largest alternative lenders outpaced the growth of national mortgage credit in 2024. These lenders risk profile has increased moderately due to higher delinquency rates, leading them to increase their loan loss allowance. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report

CANADA HOUSING MARKET: HOUSING RESALE ACTIVITY PICKED UP IN MAY 2025ARE WE WITNESSING EASING EFFECTS FROM TRADE-RELATED UNCERTAINTY ON HOUSING DEMAND? SUMMARY National housing resale activity increased from April to May with both sales and new listings rising, leaving market conditions relatively unchanged over this period. Sales increased 3.6% (sa figures) nationally from April to May, following a 0.8% increase from March to April (revised from an initially published -0.1% decline). Despite monthly increases in the last 2 months, national sales were -4.3% (nsa) weaker in May 2025 than in May 2024. In May 2025, national sales were about 35% lower than their February 2022 level, the month just before the Bank of Canada started its tightening cycle for its policy rate. National new listings rose 3.1% (m/m sa) in May and were 8% higher (nsa) than their level in the same month of 2024. In May, new listings continued their upward trend since their recent trough in March 2023. From this period to May 2025, national new listings increased by more than 40% (from sa figures). With the modestly stronger increase in national sales than for new listings, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened negligibly, rising from 46.8% to 47.0% from April to May, suggesting resale conditions stayed essentially unchanged over this period and are still within the estimated balanced conditions range, but very close to the buyers favouring conditions zone. Indeed, observed (sa) levels for this indicator in the last 3 months were the lowest since February 2009. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.june-16--2025.html