Bank of Canada: Households are adjusting to the rise in debt-servicing costs
Following sharp declines during the COVID‑19 pandemic, many indicators of financial stress have now returned to more normal levels. Signs of stress are concentrated primarily among households without a mortgage and survey data suggest that, of these households, renters are most affected. In contrast, indicators of stress among mortgage holders are largely unchanged, remaining at levels lower than their historical averages. Factors such as income growth, accumulated savings and reduced discretionary spending are supporting households ability to deal with higher debt payments.
Over the coming years, more mortgage holders will be renewing at higher interest rates. Based on market expectations for interest rates, payment increases will generally be larger for these mortgage holders than for borrowers who renewed over the past two years. Higher debt-servicing costs reduce financial flexibility for households and businesses and make them more vulnerable in the event of an economic downturn.
Signs of financial stress have risen primarily among households without a mortgage
The combination of higher inflation and higher interest rates continues to put pressure on household finances. Many indicators of financial stress, which had declined during the pandemic, are now close to pre-pandemic levels. Signs of increased financial stress appear mainly concentrated among renters.
The rates of arrears on credit cards and auto loans for households without a mortgagewhich includes renters and outright homeownersare back to pre-pandemic levels and continue to grow. In contrast, arrears on these products for households with a mortgage have remained low and stable.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/05/financial-stability-report-2024/
Bank of Canada: Financial Stability Report
Key takeaways
Canadas financial system remains resilient. Over the past year, financial system participantsincluding households, businesses, banks and non-bank financial institutionshave continued to proactively adjust to higher interest rates.
However, risks to financial stability remain. The Bank sees two key risks to stability, related to:
Debt serviceabilityBusinesses and households continue to adjust to higher interest rates. Indicators of financial stress in both sectors were below historical averages through the COVID-19 pandemic but have been normalizing. Some indicators look to be increasing more sharply and warrant monitoring. Higher debt-servicing costs reduce financial flexibility for households and businesses and make them more vulnerable in the event of an economic downturn.
Asset valuationsThe valuations of some financial assets appear to have become stretched, which increases the risk of a sharp correction that can generate system-wide stress. The recent rise in leverage in the non-bank financial intermediation sector could amplify the effects of such a correction.
The financial system is highly interconnected. Stress in one sector can spread to others.
Participants should continue to be proactive, including planning for more adverse conditions or outcomes.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/05/financial-stability-report-2024/
BMO Survey: 72% of Aspiring Homeowners are Waiting for Rate Cuts Before Buying
13% of aspiring homeowners plan on purchasing a home in 2024. 26% plan on doing so in 2025 or later.
62% believe owning a home is still one of lifes biggest aspirations, but 56% of aspiring homeowners feel owning a home is unattainable. The BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals the majority (72%) of aspiring homeowners are waiting until interest rates drop before purchasing a home a 4% increase from 2023 amid rising concerns about the cost of living (58%), inflation (56%) and their overall financial situation (38%), over the past three months.
According to BMO Economics, homebuyers may need to wait longer for affordability relief. The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged in April, but left the possibility open for a rate cut by June or July 2024.
Demographic forces have allowed some pent-up demand to build, and market psychology is such that many are expecting rate cuts in the second half of the year, said Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist, BMO Capital Markets. This should pull some demand off the sideline and firm up housing activity, but rates have a long way to fall still before affordability is restored to recent norms.
The BMO Real Financial Progress Index found 85% of Canadians believe they are making real financial progress and over two thirds (67%) feel confident in their financial situation, but fear of unknown expenses (84%) and concerns about their overall financial situation (81%) and housing costs (74%) are among the leading sources of financial anxiety.
https://newsroom.bmo.com/2024-04-29-BMO-Survey-72-of-Aspiring-Homeowners-are-Waiting-for-Rate-Cuts-Before-Buying