Suzanna Trupcevic

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems declined 2.7% on a month -over-month basis in December 2025. On an annual basis, transactions totalled 470,314 units in 2025, a decrease of 1.9% from 2024. The year was characterized by a tariff -induced flight of buyers back to the sidelines in the first quarter, followed by a decent sales rally mid -year, and a bit of a stall to finish off 2025. There doesnt appear to have been much rhyme or reason to the month - over-month decline in home sales in December, which was simply the result of coincident but seemingly unrelated slowdowns in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. For that reason, it would be prudent for market observers to resist the temptation to trace a line from the end of 2025 into 2026. Rather, we continue to expect sales to move higher again as we get closer to the spring, rejoining the upward trend that was observed throughout the spring, summer, and early fall of last year. December Highlights: National home sales declined 2.7% month -over-month. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 4.5% below December 2024. The number of newly listed properties dropped 2% on a month -over-month basis . The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) dipped 0.3% month-over-month and was down 4% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was virtually unchanged ( -0.1%) on a year-over-year basis. https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/home-sales-in-canada-end-2025-quietly/

From TD Economics Relative to our September projection, weve upgraded our 2025 growth forecasts across most regions, partly on the back of data revisions that showed economies entering the year with stronger momentum than expected. We continue to see PEI, AB, SK and NF as growth leaders this year, lifted by goods-producing industries. Meanwhile, QC, MB and ON are the likely laggards, weighed down by the trade war. For 2026, we see commodity-producing provinces outperforming again, but their margin of outperformance is likely to shrink amid moderately lower commodity prices, most prominently crude oil. Meanwhile, with the trade war proving less damaging than initially feared, provinces more geared to U.S. trade like ON, MB, QC, and NB have seen upgrades to their 2026 growth forecasts. Provincial exports have improved mildly since the peak of the trade shock in Q2-25, but limited trade-data access has clouded recent recovery trends. We assume that current tariff rates as well as the USMCA exemptions remain in place over the forecast horizon. The outcome of USMCA renegotiations is a risk to the outlook. Job markets in most provinces have turned in a more resilient performance than we had expected in September. Downside surprises in unemployment rates have been most pronounced in ON, AB, QC, NB, and PEI. While we could see job markets stumble again over the next few months, were expecting unemployment rates to broadly peak by Q1-2026 before drifting lower thereafter. Significant regional variations will exist as Canadas housing market continues its gradual improvement next year. Price growth is likely to lag significantly in Ontario and, to a lesser extent, B.C., reflecting loose supply/demand conditions. In contrast, Quebec and the Prairies are likely to see firmer price gains, underpinned by tight conditions, and decent affordability (in the Prairies). Population growth is projected to continue to decelerate sharply across provinces in response to recent changes in federal immigration policy. These changes are constraining labour force growth, limiting upside in provincial jobless rates and pressuring down rents and to a lesser extent consumer spending. Provinces most exposed to these effects include ON, B.C. and QC due to their higher non-permanent resident (NPR) shares. https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast

From CMHC Structural barriers continue to slow progress Policies on funding, zoning reform and the Housing Accelerator Fund have contributed to progress on housing. However, delivery remains slow due to structural barriers like long permitting times and inconsistent zoning, even as policy momentum builds. Innovation and scaling in private and non-profit sectors are crucial to boosting productivity. Canada must double housing starts annually by 2035 to close the supply gap. While momentum is growing, bold action and stronger coordination are needed to turn plans into results. Canadas housing delivery system Even with incentives, Canadas build pipeline is slow to respond. There are signs of progress in some markets like Montral and Ottawa, but system-wide barriers remain. To accelerate delivery and close the supply gap, we need faster approvals, modernized permitting, better municipal data and scalable innovation in construction. Scale remains a key challenge across much of the construction sector. Shifts in housing starts and rental markets Housing starts were strong early in 2025 but slowed down later in the year. Toronto and Vancouver were hit hardest, with year-over-year numbers going down. Among key reasons for the slow-down were high interest rates, labour and material shortages, developer uncertainty and the cancellation of marginal projects. Meanwhile, starts remained strong in Alberta. 2025 saw the first meaningful easing in rental conditions but affordability remains tight. Rental market indicators are moving in the right direction overall, with vacancy rates going up and rent growth slowing, showing that the market is balancing out. However, we need to consider sustaining the market and rental supply in the long term. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2026/2025-year-in-review

Home sales remained relatively flat (-0.6%) from October to November at the national level following a marginal 0.9% gain the previous month. New listings declined by 1.6% from October to November, a third consecutive decline. Active listings edged down by 0.6% in November as cancelled listings remained elevated despite a moderation in the previous months. Market conditions remained unchanged during the month and continued to indicate a balanced market compared to the historical average. Still, the balanced market conditions at the national level largely reflect soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while markets in all other provinces continue to favour sellers. Housing starts rose by 21.8K from 232.2K in October to 254.1K in November (seasonally adjusted and annualized). This increase offsets some of the 48.4K decline seen in October and brings starts above consensus expectation of 250.0K. Increases in housing starts were seen in Toronto (+7.0K to 23.7K), Montreal (+5.4K to 39.1K), and Vancouver (+9.1K to 28.5K), while Calgary (-6.8K to 29.2K) registered a decline. The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index rose 0.4% between October and November after seasonal adjustment, marking a fourth consecutive increase for this indicator. Six of the eleven CMAs included in the index recorded increases: Halifax (+1.3%), Montreal (+1.2%), Toronto (+0.6%), Calgary (+0.3%), Victoria (+0.2%) and Vancouver (+0.1%). Prices remained stable in Hamilton and Winnipeg, while they declined in Quebec City (-0.2%), Edmonton (-0.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.7%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems declined 0.6% on a month-over-month basis in November 2025, still well above April levels but mostly unchanged since July. At this point its looking like the mid-year rally in housing demand has veered into more of a holding pattern heading into 2026, coupled with what looks like some price concessions in November in order to get deals done before the end of the year, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. That said, the Bank of Canadas clear signal that rates are now about as good as theyre likely going to get is the green light many fixed-rate borrowers have no doubt been waiting for, so we remain of the view that activity will continue to pick up next year. November Highlights: National home sales declined 0.6% month-over-month. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 10.7% below November 2024. The number of newly listed properties declined 1.6% on a month-over-month basis. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) dipped 0.4% month-over-month and was down 3.7% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was down 2% on a year-over-year basis. New supply declined 1.6% month-over-month in November. Combined with a smaller decrease in sales activity, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 52.7% compared to 52.2% in October. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings roughly between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions. https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/canadian-home-sales-mark-four-year-high-for-the-month-of-september-2-2/

From TD Economics Global growth has stood up to trade turmoil better than many feared earlier this year. Even with momentum expected to slow in 2026, it will be to a lesser extent than we expected three months ago. In contrast, the U.S. economy is forecast to gain a step as Fed rate cuts, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and regulatory changes provide a tailwind. Canada is also an economy of contrasts. Government initiatives to boost investment are likely to meet some resistance with 2026s CUSMA review. The Bank of Canada has done its part, with government spending set to play an increasing role. As the world turns the page on 2025, key global growth players are on track to meet or exceed our forecasts from earlier this year, despite the disruption from U.S. trade policy. For a variety of reasons tariffs have not proven as punitive compared to the announced tariff rates, and interest rate cuts by global central banks provided a needed tailwind (see report). Looking ahead, the same story will unfold, but a further downshift is likely as most major central banks have reached the end of rate-cutting cycles and must now ensure balanced policy against stable inflation. And while government deficits are expanding in many economies, this is not a universal theme. Some face pressures to consolidate, minimizing the global fiscal impulse next year. China was among the forecast outperformers, albeit investment is now weakening. This most recent bump in the road will firm the resolve of authorities to prop up the economy through policy support next year. Meanwhile, governments in the eurozone are expected to ramp up spending, particularly on defense. However, it will take time for major countries to follow through on their announcements, with that fiscal impulse becoming more evident in the second half of 2026. https://economics.td.com/ca-quarterly-economic-forecast

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Banks October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Canadas economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility. Canadas labour market is showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures of core inflation remain in the range of 2% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation is still around 2%. In the near term, CPI inflation is likely to be higher due to the effects of last years GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/12/fad-press-release-2025-12-10/

From CMHC Housing affordability is challenging Canadians. To address this, CMHC has shown that we need to double housing starts over the next decade. Meeting this goal will require building smarter and faster, with governments and business working together. While governments can improve regulations, the residential construction industry will need to invest to improve its productivity. What are the current productivity challenges in building housing in Canada, and what solutions show the most promise? Productivity measures how much output, such as housing, is produced for each hour of work. Increasing productivity isnt about working more hoursits about working smarter. This means investing in the latest tools and equipment, ensuring workers have top-notch skills. It also involves using innovative and effective management techniques and reorganizing businesses to take advantage of these improvements. The productivity performance of the residential construction industry has been much weaker since the pandemic, contributing to the loss of housing affordability. The Centre for the Study of Living Standards estimates that lost productivity from 2019 to 2024 added $6 to $8 billion to housing construction costs in Canada. This accounts for up to 20% of the increase in new home prices. Boosting productivity in residential construction would also strengthen Canadas overall economic performance. In 2024, residential construction accounted for 4.2% of business-sector employment but only 3.3% of business-sector value added. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2025/framework-for-change-productivity-in-housing-construction