Josh Attard

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems declined 2.7% on a month -over-month basis in December 2025. On an annual basis, transactions totalled 470,314 units in 2025, a decrease of 1.9% from 2024. The year was characterized by a tariff -induced flight of buyers back to the sidelines in the first quarter, followed by a decent sales rally mid -year, and a bit of a stall to finish off 2025. There doesnt appear to have been much rhyme or reason to the month - over-month decline in home sales in December, which was simply the result of coincident but seemingly unrelated slowdowns in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. For that reason, it would be prudent for market observers to resist the temptation to trace a line from the end of 2025 into 2026. Rather, we continue to expect sales to move higher again as we get closer to the spring, rejoining the upward trend that was observed throughout the spring, summer, and early fall of last year. December Highlights: National home sales declined 2.7% month -over-month. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 4.5% below December 2024. The number of newly listed properties dropped 2% on a month -over-month basis . The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) dipped 0.3% month-over-month and was down 4% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was virtually unchanged ( -0.1%) on a year-over-year basis. https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/home-sales-in-canada-end-2025-quietly/

From TD Economics Relative to our September projection, weve upgraded our 2025 growth forecasts across most regions, partly on the back of data revisions that showed economies entering the year with stronger momentum than expected. We continue to see PEI, AB, SK and NF as growth leaders this year, lifted by goods-producing industries. Meanwhile, QC, MB and ON are the likely laggards, weighed down by the trade war. For 2026, we see commodity-producing provinces outperforming again, but their margin of outperformance is likely to shrink amid moderately lower commodity prices, most prominently crude oil. Meanwhile, with the trade war proving less damaging than initially feared, provinces more geared to U.S. trade like ON, MB, QC, and NB have seen upgrades to their 2026 growth forecasts. Provincial exports have improved mildly since the peak of the trade shock in Q2-25, but limited trade-data access has clouded recent recovery trends. We assume that current tariff rates as well as the USMCA exemptions remain in place over the forecast horizon. The outcome of USMCA renegotiations is a risk to the outlook. Job markets in most provinces have turned in a more resilient performance than we had expected in September. Downside surprises in unemployment rates have been most pronounced in ON, AB, QC, NB, and PEI. While we could see job markets stumble again over the next few months, were expecting unemployment rates to broadly peak by Q1-2026 before drifting lower thereafter. Significant regional variations will exist as Canadas housing market continues its gradual improvement next year. Price growth is likely to lag significantly in Ontario and, to a lesser extent, B.C., reflecting loose supply/demand conditions. In contrast, Quebec and the Prairies are likely to see firmer price gains, underpinned by tight conditions, and decent affordability (in the Prairies). Population growth is projected to continue to decelerate sharply across provinces in response to recent changes in federal immigration policy. These changes are constraining labour force growth, limiting upside in provincial jobless rates and pressuring down rents and to a lesser extent consumer spending. Provinces most exposed to these effects include ON, B.C. and QC due to their higher non-permanent resident (NPR) shares. https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast

From CMHC Structural barriers continue to slow progress Policies on funding, zoning reform and the Housing Accelerator Fund have contributed to progress on housing. However, delivery remains slow due to structural barriers like long permitting times and inconsistent zoning, even as policy momentum builds. Innovation and scaling in private and non-profit sectors are crucial to boosting productivity. Canada must double housing starts annually by 2035 to close the supply gap. While momentum is growing, bold action and stronger coordination are needed to turn plans into results. Canadas housing delivery system Even with incentives, Canadas build pipeline is slow to respond. There are signs of progress in some markets like Montral and Ottawa, but system-wide barriers remain. To accelerate delivery and close the supply gap, we need faster approvals, modernized permitting, better municipal data and scalable innovation in construction. Scale remains a key challenge across much of the construction sector. Shifts in housing starts and rental markets Housing starts were strong early in 2025 but slowed down later in the year. Toronto and Vancouver were hit hardest, with year-over-year numbers going down. Among key reasons for the slow-down were high interest rates, labour and material shortages, developer uncertainty and the cancellation of marginal projects. Meanwhile, starts remained strong in Alberta. 2025 saw the first meaningful easing in rental conditions but affordability remains tight. Rental market indicators are moving in the right direction overall, with vacancy rates going up and rent growth slowing, showing that the market is balancing out. However, we need to consider sustaining the market and rental supply in the long term. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2026/2025-year-in-review

Home sales remained relatively flat (-0.6%) from October to November at the national level following a marginal 0.9% gain the previous month. New listings declined by 1.6% from October to November, a third consecutive decline. Active listings edged down by 0.6% in November as cancelled listings remained elevated despite a moderation in the previous months. Market conditions remained unchanged during the month and continued to indicate a balanced market compared to the historical average. Still, the balanced market conditions at the national level largely reflect soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while markets in all other provinces continue to favour sellers. Housing starts rose by 21.8K from 232.2K in October to 254.1K in November (seasonally adjusted and annualized). This increase offsets some of the 48.4K decline seen in October and brings starts above consensus expectation of 250.0K. Increases in housing starts were seen in Toronto (+7.0K to 23.7K), Montreal (+5.4K to 39.1K), and Vancouver (+9.1K to 28.5K), while Calgary (-6.8K to 29.2K) registered a decline. The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index rose 0.4% between October and November after seasonal adjustment, marking a fourth consecutive increase for this indicator. Six of the eleven CMAs included in the index recorded increases: Halifax (+1.3%), Montreal (+1.2%), Toronto (+0.6%), Calgary (+0.3%), Victoria (+0.2%) and Vancouver (+0.1%). Prices remained stable in Hamilton and Winnipeg, while they declined in Quebec City (-0.2%), Edmonton (-0.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.7%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems declined 0.6% on a month-over-month basis in November 2025, still well above April levels but mostly unchanged since July. At this point its looking like the mid-year rally in housing demand has veered into more of a holding pattern heading into 2026, coupled with what looks like some price concessions in November in order to get deals done before the end of the year, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. That said, the Bank of Canadas clear signal that rates are now about as good as theyre likely going to get is the green light many fixed-rate borrowers have no doubt been waiting for, so we remain of the view that activity will continue to pick up next year. November Highlights: National home sales declined 0.6% month-over-month. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 10.7% below November 2024. The number of newly listed properties declined 1.6% on a month-over-month basis. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) dipped 0.4% month-over-month and was down 3.7% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was down 2% on a year-over-year basis. New supply declined 1.6% month-over-month in November. Combined with a smaller decrease in sales activity, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 52.7% compared to 52.2% in October. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings roughly between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions. https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/canadian-home-sales-mark-four-year-high-for-the-month-of-september-2-2/

From TD Economics Global growth has stood up to trade turmoil better than many feared earlier this year. Even with momentum expected to slow in 2026, it will be to a lesser extent than we expected three months ago. In contrast, the U.S. economy is forecast to gain a step as Fed rate cuts, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and regulatory changes provide a tailwind. Canada is also an economy of contrasts. Government initiatives to boost investment are likely to meet some resistance with 2026s CUSMA review. The Bank of Canada has done its part, with government spending set to play an increasing role. As the world turns the page on 2025, key global growth players are on track to meet or exceed our forecasts from earlier this year, despite the disruption from U.S. trade policy. For a variety of reasons tariffs have not proven as punitive compared to the announced tariff rates, and interest rate cuts by global central banks provided a needed tailwind (see report). Looking ahead, the same story will unfold, but a further downshift is likely as most major central banks have reached the end of rate-cutting cycles and must now ensure balanced policy against stable inflation. And while government deficits are expanding in many economies, this is not a universal theme. Some face pressures to consolidate, minimizing the global fiscal impulse next year. China was among the forecast outperformers, albeit investment is now weakening. This most recent bump in the road will firm the resolve of authorities to prop up the economy through policy support next year. Meanwhile, governments in the eurozone are expected to ramp up spending, particularly on defense. However, it will take time for major countries to follow through on their announcements, with that fiscal impulse becoming more evident in the second half of 2026. https://economics.td.com/ca-quarterly-economic-forecast

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Banks October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Canadas economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility. Canadas labour market is showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures of core inflation remain in the range of 2% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation is still around 2%. In the near term, CPI inflation is likely to be higher due to the effects of last years GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/12/fad-press-release-2025-12-10/

From CMHC Housing affordability is challenging Canadians. To address this, CMHC has shown that we need to double housing starts over the next decade. Meeting this goal will require building smarter and faster, with governments and business working together. While governments can improve regulations, the residential construction industry will need to invest to improve its productivity. What are the current productivity challenges in building housing in Canada, and what solutions show the most promise? Productivity measures how much output, such as housing, is produced for each hour of work. Increasing productivity isnt about working more hoursits about working smarter. This means investing in the latest tools and equipment, ensuring workers have top-notch skills. It also involves using innovative and effective management techniques and reorganizing businesses to take advantage of these improvements. The productivity performance of the residential construction industry has been much weaker since the pandemic, contributing to the loss of housing affordability. The Centre for the Study of Living Standards estimates that lost productivity from 2019 to 2024 added $6 to $8 billion to housing construction costs in Canada. This accounts for up to 20% of the increase in new home prices. Boosting productivity in residential construction would also strengthen Canadas overall economic performance. In 2024, residential construction accounted for 4.2% of business-sector employment but only 3.3% of business-sector value added. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2025/framework-for-change-productivity-in-housing-construction

Canada has experienced around 300 catastrophic weather events since 1983, with both the frequency and cost of these disasters rising significantly in recent years. Over 60% of total insured losses caused by weather disasters between 2008 and 2024 stemmed from damage to personal property. Average insured personal property losses have nearly doubled in the past five years compared to previous years, putting significant pressure on Canadas home insurance sector for both insurers and households faced with rising home insurance rates. The increase in home insurance costs was generally higher in areas that have experienced greater insured damages from weather disasters. As well, some highly-impacted areas also face rising deductibles or reduced coverage for certain perils like hail or floods. Fiscally-constrained governments are also rethinking the level of financial assistance provided through disaster recovery programs to support communities recovering from uninsurable losses as costs of weather disasters rise. Canada has had over 300 catastrophic weather events since 1983. These are currently defined as weather disasters that cause at least $30 million in insured losses, though lower thresholds were used prior to 2022. The average number of annual catastrophic events has increased over time as have insured losses associated with these events. Insured losses vary by province with Alberta accounting for the largest share of total insured losses between 1983 and 2024, followed by Ontario and Quebec. The three provinces are the only ones that have been hit by billion-dollar-plus catastrophic events so far, with Alberta alone having had five as of 2024. More than 60% of insured losses from 2008 to 2024 were due to damage to personal property. In addition, the costs have increased substantially in recent years with insured damages to personal property during 2020-2024 being almost twice their level in the previous decade. Moreover, the insurance industry in Canada incurred underwriting losses in the personal property line of business in 2023 and 2024 as insured damages and operational expenses exceeded revenue earned from premiums. These changes have contributed to rising home insurance premiums, especially in areas hardest hit by severe weather, with Alberta being the most notable example of the variation in insurance cost increases between more and less vulnerable areas. Additionally, high-risk areas face other adjustments to home insurance policies including higher deductibles for example, for hail coverage in areas that have experienced substantial damage from hailstorms. In worst case situations, insurance coverage is simply not available for certain perils such as overland flooding in areas of the country deemed most at risk of flooding. Meanwhile, as households that are most vulnerable to severe weather are feeling the squeeze from the private insurance market, government disaster recovery programs, which have historically acted as an insurer of last resort, are also beginning to restrict the level of support provided to impacted communities as these programs are also contending with rising costs of extreme weather. https://economics.td.com/ca-extreme-weather-and-insurance

After a decline in September, housing sales in October were back on their upward trend that started last April. This sales performance and a decline in new listings contributed to tighten the sales-to-new listings ratio in October. Also, during that month, the national MLS House Price Index posted its first monthly risealbeit modestsince November 2024. Unit sales rose nationally by 0.9% (sa figures) from September to October, partially offsetting the -1.6% decline from August to September. Sales are back on the upward trend they have been exhibiting since their most recent trough in March of this year when economic uncertainty was rising with trade tensions. From the same month in 2024, sales declined -4.3% (nsa) in October. National new listings posted a -1.4% (sa) monthly decline in October, the second in a row with a -0.8% decline in the previous month. Despite these monthly declines, new listings have been generally trending up in 2025, and in October were higher by 4.3% (nsa) than in the same month in 2024. With the monthly rise in national (unit) sales and the decline in new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened (rose) by 1.2 percentage point in October to 52.2% (sa), still in the lower half of the estimated balanced conditions range for this indicator. The other indicator of market tightness we trackmonths of inventorywas at 4.4 nationally in October (sa figures), mostly stable at that level since July of this year, and below its 5.2 long-term (pre-pandemic) average. As in previous months, this market-tightness indicator was below its long-term average in most provinces, except in British Columbia and Ontario at 0.9 months above this average for both. For the first time since November 2024, the national MLS House Price Index (MLS HPI) posted a monthly rise in October, but relatively modest at +0.2% (sa). This price index declined -3.0% (nsa) from the same month last year and, from sa figures, is now 26.7% above its December 2019 level but nearly 18% below its February 2022 historical peak. From September to October 2025, sales increased in 18 of the 30 reported local markets we monitor while the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened (increased) in 17 of these markets. But as for Canada, this latter indicator of market conditions cooled in 22 of these markets. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.november-17--2025.html

Canadian home resales increased by 0.9% from September to October, the sixth increase in the last seven months. Despite the recovery in previous months, sales were still 7.5% below their most recent peak in November 2024. On the supply side, new listings declined 1.4% from September to October, a second consecutive decline. Active listings increased by 0.9% in October, following a contraction in the prior month as cancelled listings have recently moderated. Market conditions remained unchanged during the month and continued to indicate a balanced market compared to the historical average. Still, this largely reflects soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while markets in all other provinces continue to favour sellers. Housing starts fell 16.6% in October to a seven-month low of 232.8K (seasonally adjusted and annualized). The loss was concentrated in Ontario, where starts plunged 51.8% in the month, largely because of a 61.7% decline in Toronto. Vancouver also saw a decrease (-16.9% to 19.4K), while Calgary (+37.9% to 36.1K) and Montreal (+8.7% to a 16-month high of 33.6K) posted gains. The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price IndexTM rose 0.4% from September to October after seasonal adjustment, marking a third consecutive increase for this indicator. Eight of the 11 CMAs included in the index saw increases, led by Quebec City (+2.5%), Winnipeg (+1.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.4%) and Victoria (+0.6%). From October 2024 to October 2025, the composite index fell by 2.6%, on decreases in Toronto (-7.2%), Vancouver (-4.5%) and Hamilton (-4.0%). These declines were partially offset by gains in Quebec City (+15.7%), Winnipeg (+5.4%) and Edmonton (+5.3%) https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf