John Meredith

• Consistent with our national forecast, we’ve embedded upgrades to 2026 real GDP growth across most provinces. That said, the drivers of these boosts vary, with a solid Q2 boosting Ontario, oil production lifting regions like Alberta, and investment supporting B.C. 
• Regional growth divergences are set to widen into 2027 as tariffs, export bans, and higher energy prices create a clear divide between commodity-producing and manufacturing-oriented provinces. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland & Labrador are benefiting from stronger oil prices through higher incomes, profits, and government revenues. In addition, they’re relatively insulated from trade disruptions thanks to commodity exemptions and more diversified export markets. In contrast, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick face a double headwind from disproportionate tariff exposure and higher energy costs, with few offsetting benefits from the commodity price upswing.
• Federal and provincial governments have rolled out new waves of support in response to escalated trade frictions, including loan programs, wage subsidies, grants and EI enhancements. These measures should provide some offset to new external shocks.
• Recent better-than-expected employment gains have pushed unemployment rates lower across most provinces, though softer hiring next year is expected to slow further improvement. At the same time, sharply weaker population growth – including outright declines in Ontario, Quebec, B.C., Manitoba, and Newfoundland & Labrador – will restrain both labour force gains and upward pressure on jobless rates.
• Renewed conflict in the Middle East has pushed WTI oil back to the $100/bbl mark and reinforced a source of uncertainty for the economic outlook. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland & Labrador are benefiting through sizable revenue windfalls, energy-sector incomes and profits. Elsewhere, higher prices are a net drag.
• The combination of rising yields and downgraded economic activity underpins broad-based downgrades to growth in home sales and average home prices. On the latter, B.C. and Ontario are an exception, where compositional forces (i.e. stronger sales growth in more expensive properties) are supporting average prices. This trend is likely to persist in the near term. 

High interest rates are affecting mortgage choices at renewal in Canada. More households are choosing variable-rate and shorter-term mortgages, increasing their exposure to future interest-rate changes.

Key Takeaways

• Recent interest-rate volatility has highlighted how quickly mortgage costs can change for many Canadian households when mortgages come up for renewal.
• Canadians are increasingly choosing variable-rate mortgages and shorter fixed-rate terms, changing their exposure to future interest-rate movements.
• Mortgage term choices do more than affect borrowing costs. They influence how interest-rate risk is distributed across households and the broader financial system.
• As economic uncertainty increases, decisions about mortgage terms may become more important for households' financial resilience.

The average asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment across all census metropolitan areas (CMAs) combined was $2,130 per month in the second quarter of 2026, down 3.6% from the second quarter of 2025.

These findings are from the Quarterly Rent Statistics program for the second quarter of 2026. These new data are compiled for CMAs across Canada's 10 provinces.

In the second quarter, asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment decreased year over year in many CMAs, such as Abbotsford–Mission (-6.4%), Calgary (-6.4%), Montréal (-5.2%) and Vancouver (-4.1%); however, it increased year over year in other CMAs, such as Thunder Bay (+6.5%), Sherbrooke (+5.7%), Halifax (+5.3%) and Saskatoon (+5.2%). Average monthly asking rent was highest in Vancouver ($3,030), Toronto ($2,650), Victoria ($2,640) and Halifax ($2,400).

Where available, the concept of paid rent has been added to the estimates from the first quarter of 2019 onward. While asking rent refers to the price posted on major rental listing platforms, paid rent reflects the current amount paid by existing renters, typically based on a formal lease agreement and, if applicable, subsequent rent increases. Paid rent estimates for the second quarter of 2026 are available for 18 CMAs.

In the second quarter, the average asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment was higher than the average paid rent in almost all CMAs where both figures were available. The only exceptions were Calgary (asking rent of $1,890 per month and paid rent of $1,930 per month), Regina (asking rent of $1,480 and paid rent of $1,580) and Edmonton ($1,570 each). Average monthly paid rent for a two-bedroom apartment was highest in Vancouver ($2,470) and Toronto ($2,160) in the second quarter.