Rajesh Kumar

On Wednesday, September 2, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its overnight lending rate steady at 2.25% where it has now remained for almost a year. This move was widely expected by analysts.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.3% in the second quarter, while the unemployment rate edged down to 6.4% in July. Combined with persistently high oil prices, the risk of broader inflationary pressures and the potential impact of Canadian counter-tariffs taking effect September 8, these factors could shift the probability back towards a potential rate hike in the not-too-distant future.

Inflation fears around the world are once again already causing financial conditions to tighten. The Bank noted that, “long-term bond yields have moved up globally, including in Canada,” which means borrowers are already facing higher fixed mortgage rates, similar to what happened back in March and April 2026.

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

The continuing conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy prices high. As well, new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures have been announced following the breakdown of trade talks between Canada and the United States. Both situations remain fluid.

In the United States, economic growth continues to be solid, driven by consumer spending and AI-related investment. Growth in the euro area was stronger than expected in the second quarter, while China’s economy slowed. Overall, the global economy has shown resilience in the face of geopolitical headwinds, with growth broadly consistent with the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection. With still-high oil prices and elevated margins for refined energy products, inflation in most countries remains high.

Financial conditions have tightened since July. Long-term bond yields have moved up globally, including in Canada. The Canadian dollar has appreciated slightly on US-dollar weakness.

As expected, Canadian economic activity strengthened in the second quarter, with GDP up by 3.3%, following very weak growth in the first quarter. While some of the recent strength reflected temporary factors, the pick-up in activity was broad-based. Consumption showed solid gains. Following several weak quarters, there was some rebound in housing activity. Exports and business investment were up sharply. Labour market conditions have improved in recent months, with the unemployment rate edging down to 6.4% in July. Still, demand for labour remains subdued and indicators point to continued excess supply in the economy.