The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems increased 5.5% on a month-over-month basis in May 2026.

“The national sales increase from April to May was broad-based but driven disproportionately by Ontario, suggesting the HST rebate on new builds may have only briefly drawn the attention of buyers away from the existing home market,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “While it was just the first month in 2026 to see any meaningful upward momentum in headline demand, under the surface conditions have been improving for some time. Sellers’ and buyers’ expectations are increasingly aligned, as evidenced by tightening sale-to-list price ratios and shorter periods between listing and sale dates. As a result, prices have largely stabilized following some softness earlier in the year.”

May Highlights:

• National home sales jumped 5.5% month-over-month.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 5.1% below May 2025.
• The number of newly listed properties edged down 1% on a month-over-month basis.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) inched down by 0.1% month-over-month and was down 4.1% on a year-over-year basis.
• The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was up 1.5% on a year-over-year basis in May 2026.

Amid rising concern about housing affordability for younger Canadians, this article investigates the housing market outcomes of millennials compared with Gen-Xers and baby boomers at a similar age (25 to 39 years). Using Census of Population data from 1991, 2006 and 2021, this article examines shifts in the housing market outcomes of each generational cohort in relation to moving out of the parental home, forming families and homeownership status.

Key findings

• In 2021, the share of millennials aged 25 to 39 living in a census family with parents (16.3%) was around twice the share of baby boomers of the same age in 1991 (8.2%). This trend has occurred gradually over time and is common to the large cities studied.
• After accounting for those living with their parents, millennials had the lowest rate of homeownership (49.9%), compared with Gen-Xers (56.2%) and baby boomers (55.9%) when they were aged 25 to 39 years.
• Fewer millennials aged 25 to 39 were married with children (26.6%) compared with Gen-Xers (34.5%) and baby boomers (46.6%) when they were the same age―the household type with the highest rate of homeownership historically.
• Millennial homeowners, after accounting for those living with their parents, were less likely to live in single-detached houses relative to earlier generations, especially those living in Toronto and Vancouver.

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

The conflict in the Middle East is now in its fourth month. The resulting increases in energy prices and disruptions in global supply chains are weighing on global economic growth and pushing up inflation. At the same time, the US administration continues to propose new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty remains elevated.

In the United States, economic growth remains solid, supported by consumption and AI‑related investment. In the euro area, growth is subdued, with higher energy prices weighing on activity. China’s economic growth continues to be supported by strong exports.

Canadian financial conditions have loosened since the April Monetary Policy Report. Global equity markets have been buoyant and bond yields remain volatile. The Canadian dollar has weakened against the US dollar and other currencies.

In Canada, GDP edged down by 0.1% in the first quarter, weaker than expected at the time of the April MPR. Consumer spending grew 1.4% but government spending unexpectedly declined. Housing activity also declined and business investment remained weak. Exports fell while imports rose strongly as inventories were rebuilt. Employment was up in May, but looking through monthly volatility, employment in Canada is little changed since the start of the year. The unemployment rate continues to fluctuate in the 6 ½%-7% range with the most recent reading at 6.6% in May.

Key developments in Canada’s residential mortgage market in 2025 and the outlook for 2026:

• In 2025, the mortgage market activity was dominated by renewals of existing mortgages, rather than new mortgages taken out by homebuyers.
• Renewal volumes are expected to ease in 2026. Borrowers renewing after a 5-year term are likely to face a similar interest-rate shock as those who renewed in 2025.
• Insured mortgage activity increased compared to uninsured lending. New eligibility rules made it easier for first-time homebuyers and new home buyers to qualify for mortgage insurance.
• The national 90+ days mortgage delinquency rates increased in 2025. The increase was largely concentrated in Ontario, especially Toronto, where households faced growing payment pressures.
• Despite the increase, 90+ days delinquency rates remain low by recent standards. Delinquencies on non-mortgage products – often a predictor of mortgage defaults – are rising but at a slower pace.
• Canada’s residential mortgage debt exceeded $2.4 trillion in December 2025, reaching a new high.
• Overall, borrower stress is increasing due to softer labour-market conditions and accumulated exposure to higher interest rates. The system is more rate-sensitive, but remains structurally stable.

Key trends to watch

The following factors may influence the performance of Canada’s residential mortgage market in the coming years:

• Upcoming renewal cycles, particularly borrowers rolling into new rates through 2026–27.
• Labour market conditions, given their close relationship with arrears.
• Shifts in insured mortgage activity, including amortization trends and eligibility effects.
• Performance of nonbank lenders, especially where borrower profiles differ from banks.

• Home sales in Canada edged up by 0.7% from March to April, the first increase in six months.
• New listings increased by 4.1% from March to April, following stabilization the previous month.
• Active listings increased by 2.7% in April, the third increase in four months.
• The number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales ratio) edged up from 5.1 to 5.2 during the month, its highest level since April 2019 (excluding the pandemic).
• Market conditions loosened slightly in April but remained balanced at the national level, which largely reflects soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while markets in all other provinces continue to favour sellers.
• Housing starts increased by 39.6K from 239.7K in March to 279.3K in April (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a print well above the consensus calling for 245.0K. This rebound was driven by a pickup in urban areas (+37.8K to 265.6K), while rural areas also edged higher (+1.8K to 13.7K). The increase in urban areas was concentrated in the multi-unit segment (+39.7K to 229.1K), while the single-detached segment edged lower (-2.0K to 36.5K). Housing starts rose sharply in Toronto (+19.1K to 37.4K) and Vancouver (+4.7K to 25.8K), while they declined in Calgary (-5.7K to 14.9K) and Montreal (-1.7K to 28.0K).
• The Teranet–National Bank Composite National House Price fell by 0.7% from March to April on a seasonally adjusted basis. Six of the eleven CMAs included in the index recorded declines during the month: Winnipeg (-2.3%), Calgary (-1.2%), Toronto (-1.1%), Vancouver (-0.7%), Montreal (-0.5%), and Hamilton (-0.3%). Conversely, prices rose in Halifax (+2.4%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.1%), Victoria (+0.4%), Edmonton (+0.1%), and Quebec City (+0.1%).

CANADA HOUSING MARKET: EXISTING HOME SALES INCREASED IN APRIL, BUT TOO SOON TO SHOUT ‘RECOVERY’

Housing sales increased nationally in April after five months of consecutive declines. But both indicators of market conditions we report suggest still-soft conditions nationally. The MLS HPI for all markets continued to decline in April.

The number of housing sales (in units) increased 0.7% (sa) from March to April, its first monthly rise since October 2025. Sales increased in 17 of the 31 markets we track from March to April, with the strongest increases posted in Barrie (18.8%), St. Catharines (18.2%) and Charlottetown (PEI; 16.6%). National sales declined -4% (nsa) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026. 

In April, national new listings posted a 4.1% (sa) monthly increase with above ¾ of the local markets we track contributing to this rise, with at least 10% increases observed for Quebec City (12.4%), Kitchener-Waterloo (10.5%), Ottawa (10.2%) and Peterborough (10%). New listings also edged up 0.2% (nsa) nationally over the 12-month period ending with April.

With new listings increasing at a faster pace than sales from March to April, the national sales-to new listings ratio (SNLR) was pushed down to 45.6% (sa). This figure is close to our estimated lower bound for the balanced conditions’ range (estimated at 44.7%), and very close to its lowest print since early 2009, when Canada was in a recession. Nearly ¾ of the monitored local markets have seen their SLNR declined from March to April.

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems was up 0.7% on a month-over-month basis in April 2026.

“While home sales were up only modestly from March to April, the small increase reflected a slow start to the month with a stronger handoff into May, alongside falling days on market and stabilizing prices,” said Shaun Cathcart, Senior Economist with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). “This latest bout of global economic uncertainty and higher mortgage rates means the previously expected rebound in housing markets this year will continue to be muted, but it does not mean there will be no upward momentum at all.”

April Highlights:

• National home sales edged up 0.7% month-over-month.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 4% below April 2025.
• The number of newly listed properties jumped 4.1% on a month-over-month basis.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 0.1% month-over-month and was
• down 4.2% on a year-over-year basis.
• The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was up 2.2% on a
• year-over-year basis in April 2026.

Canada’s housing starts made meaningful gains in 2025. Record rental construction and more missing middle housing added important new supply, building on the momentum highlighted in the Fall 2025 Housing Supply Report.

At the same time, ownership-oriented construction weakened overall. Short-term imbalances continued in several markets. Rising unsold inventories suggest today’s supply may not align well with buyers’ needs, while tighter financing conditions and project cancellations threaten future supply.

This report focuses on both sides of that story: where Canada is succeeding in expanding housing options and where further progress is needed to ensure long-term supply and affordability.

Highlights

• Canada’s housing starts rose 6% in 2025, driven by record rental and expanding missing middle construction. Building timelines improved. High completion levels added important supply, especially in Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton.
• Major vulnerabilities lie underneath this progress. Condominium presales collapsed, unsold inventory surged and financial conditions tightened. These pressures threaten the future pipeline of ownership-oriented housing supply, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver.
• Slower population growth, cautious buyers and elevated construction costs shaped supply decisions, pushing developers towards smaller apartments while limiting family-sized, ground-oriented homes.
• Looking ahead, near‑term supply imbalances are expected to ease as new supply is absorbed, helping affordability in the long run.

CANADA HOUSING MARKET: STILL WAITING FOR A NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY

National housing sales and the MLS Home Price Index continued to decline in March, reflecting continued weakness in market conditions.

The number of national housing sales posted its fifth consecutive monthly decline last month, edging down by -0.1% (sa figures) from its February level, while it declined by -2.3% (nsa) since March 2025. From February to March, sales declined in 17 of the 31 local markets we track. National new listings also edged down by -0.2% (sa) between February and March and posted a -4.9% (nsa) decline since March 2025.

With almost identical monthly declines (in %) in both sales and new listings, the national sales-to-new listings ratio stayed constant at 47.8% (sa) from February to March, still in the lower half of the estimated balanced conditions range. This indicator of market conditions has hovered in this lower-half range since December 2024, and also frequently since Spring of 2022. From February to March and according to this indicator, market conditions eased in 14 of the local markets we monitor and tightened in 17 of them. It also suggests 14 of these local markets were balanced in March and the same number were favouring buyers, all in B.C. and Ontario. Only 3 markets—Regina, Saskatoon and St. John’s (NL)—were assessed as sellers’ favourable.

The other indicator of market conditions we report—months of inventory—stayed unchanged at 5.0 from February to March, very close to its long-term pre-pandemic average of 5.2, hence also suggesting balanced conditions. But despite being essentially balanced at national level, this indicator continues to mask significant divergences across provinces with British Columbia and Ontario showing figures above their long-term average and the other provinces showing below average figures.

The national MLS House Price Index (HPI) declined -0.4% (sa) from February to March, continuing its downward trend that started in the second half of 2023. As in many previous months, all unit types contributed to both the monthly and 12-month declines in the national MLS HPI. Over the 12-month period ending in March of this year, this price index declined -4.7% (nsa). Its trend profile reflects the weakening market conditions mainly coming initially from the lagged effects from the rise in interest rates until Fall of 2023, and subsequently from slower population growth and the rise in global trade and geopolitical tensions since early 2025.

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

The evolving conflict in the Middle East is causing heightened volatility and US trade policy continues to reshape global trade patterns. Both are ongoing sources of uncertainty. The Bank’s April outlook assumes tariffs remain unchanged and the global benchmark price of oil declines to US$75 per barrel by mid 2027.

The Iran war has led to sharply higher energy prices and transportation disruptions, diminishing growth prospects in oil-importing countries and boosting inflation worldwide. In the United States, growth is still expected to be solid over the projection horizon, boosted by AI-related investment and consumption growth. China’s economy is being supported by robust exports. In the euro area, higher prices for oil and natural gas will weigh on economic activity.

Financial conditions have been volatile, reflecting daily developments in the Middle East and shifting market expectations for inflation and interest rates. Bond yields are modestly higher since January while equity markets, which weakened sharply at the outset of the war, have recovered. Since the start of the war, the US dollar has appreciated against most major currencies. The Canada-US exchange rate has been relatively stable.

Overall, the global economy is expected to grow by about 3% in 2026, 2027 and 2028. Projections for inflation over the next year are revised up because of the jump in energy prices.

• Weaker-than-expected performances in 2025Q4 and especially 2026Q1 have prompted a steep downgrade to our forecasts for 2026 annual average Canadian home resales and price growth. While severe weather in Central and Atlantic Canada weighed on activity early in the year, weakness was also evident in B.C., where conditions were more temperate. Sales are likely to take most of the year to recoup first quarter losses, as housing remains constrained by a subdued economy, heightened uncertainty, and ongoing cost of living pressures.
• Interest rates are expected to be a largely neutral factor for the outlook in 2026, with the Bank of Canada likely to remain on hold and no major movements expected in bond yields (which help determine fixed mortgage rates).
• Canada’s population declined last year for the first time since Confederation, driven by losses in Ontario and B.C.. Softer rental demand and falling rents are discouraging investor activity in both provinces. Alberta stands out, with the strongest population growth nationally, supported by immigration. Interprovincial migrants continue to flow into the province, bolstering ownership demand.

From CMHC

Key Highlights

• To restore affordability, we maintain our 2022 projection that Canada will need 3.5 million more units on top of what’s already being built.
• We’ve adjusted our 2030 projection for how many housing units there will be in Canada in 2030 based on current rates of new construction. Our most recent projection is 18.2 million units, down from our 2022 estimate of 18.6 million. This is largely due to the shortfall in housing construction.
• About 60% of the 3.5 million housing unit gap is in Ontario and British Columbia. This is because housing supply hasn’t kept up with demand over the past 20 years in some of the largest urban centres.
• Additional supply will also be needed in Quebec. Once considered affordable, the province has become less affordable over the last few years.
• More supply need is also projected for Alberta due to strong economic growth.
• Other provinces remain affordable to households with an average level of disposable income. However, challenges remain for low-income households in accessing housing that is affordable across Canada.
• In addition to our baseline scenario of 3.5 million additional units being needed to restore affordability by 2030, we offer 2 alternate scenarios: a “high-population- growth” scenario and a “low-economic-growth” scenario.
• We provide regional highlights for areas across the country.

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Inflation in advanced economies has continued to come down, but with measures of core inflation still elevated, major central banks remain focused on restoring price stability. Global growth slowed in the second quarter of 2023, largely reflecting a significant deceleration in China. With ongoing weakness in the property sector undermining confidence, growth prospects in China have diminished. In the United States, growth was stronger than expected, led by robust consumer spending. In Europe, strength in the service sector supported growth, offsetting an ongoing contraction in manufacturing. Global bond yields have risen, reflecting higher real interest rates, and international oil prices are higher than was assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

The Canadian economy has entered a period of weaker growth, which is needed to relieve price pressures. Economic growth slowed sharply in the second quarter of 2023, with output contracting by 0.2% at an annualized rate. This reflected a marked weakening in consumption growth and a decline in housing activity, as well as the impact of wildfires in many regions of the country. Household credit growth slowed as the impact of higher rates restrained spending among a wider range of borrowers. Final domestic demand grew by 1% in the second quarter, supported by government spending and a boost to business investment. The tightness in the labour market has continued to ease gradually. However, wage growth has remained around 4% to 5%.

Recent CPI data indicate that inflationary pressures remain broad-based. After easing to 2.8% in June, CPI inflation moved up to 3.3% in July, averaging close to 3% in line with the Bank’s projection. With the recent increase in gasoline prices, CPI inflation is expected to be higher in the near term before easing again. Year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation are now both running at about 3.5%, indicating there has been little recent downward momentum in underlying inflation. The longer high inflation persists, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched, making it more difficult to restore price stability.

Summary

• On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales decreased 0.7% from June to July, a first monthly contraction in six months following the renewed monetary tightening cycle of the Bank of Canada.
• On the supply side, new listings jumped 5.6% in July, a fourth consecutive monthly increase. Another sign of a loss of momentum in the real estate market is the proportion of listings cancelled during the month, which is back on the rise, a sign that some sellers are discouraged by recent interest rate hikes.
• Overall, active listing increased by 2.5%, the second monthly gain in a row. As a result, the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) increased from 3.1 in June to 3.2 in July. This continues to be higher than the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis.
• The active-listings to sales ratio is still tighter than its historical average in the majority of Canadian provinces, with only Manitoba indicating a ratio slightly above historical norm.
• Housing starts in Canada decreased in July (-28.5 to 255.0K, seasonally adjusted and annualized), beating consensus expectations calling for a 244K print. This decline follows the strongest growth ever recorded the previous month. Decreases in housing starts were seen in Ontario (-21.8K to 99.5K), British Columbia (-15.2K to 50.7K), Nova Scotia (-8.1K to 5.8K) and Saskatchewan (-1.9K to 5.3K). Meanwhile, increases were registered in Alberta (+11.9K to 38.5K), Quebec (+3.1K to 38.0K), Manitoba (+2.1K to 10K), New Brunswick (+0.6K to 5.0K), P.E.I. (+0.6K to 1.2K), while starts in Newfoundland (+0.1K to 1.1K) remained essentially unchanged.
• The Teranet National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 2.4% in July after seasonal adjustment. Eight of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Halifax (+4.9%), Hamilton (+4.4%), Vancouver (+3.9%), Toronto (+3.5%), Victoria (+1.6%), Winnipeg (+1.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.6%) and Edmonton (+0.3%). Conversely, prices fell in Quebec City (-1.2%), Montreal (-0.9%) and Calgary (-0.3%).

Following the recovery of the residential real estate market in recent months, the Teranet-National Bank composite index jumped by 2.4% from June to July, the fourth consecutive monthly increase, but also the second highest price increase ever recorded in a single month after the one observed in July 2006. After a cumulative decline of 8.6% since peaking in April 2022, recent rises in the composite index have erased a part of this correction, which now stands at just 3.8%. Interestingly, the recent upturn in prices has been greatest in the cities that have seen the biggest corrections. However, only four of the 32 CMAs covered have completely erased their price declines: Saint John, Lethbridge, Quebec City and Trois-Rivières. Prices could continue to rise in the third quarter, supported by strong demographic growth and the lack of supply of properties on the market. That said, the deterioration in affordability with recent interest rate hikes in a less buoyant economic context should represent a headwind for house prices thereafter.

HIGHLIGHTS:

• The Teranet National Bank Composite National House Price IndexTM rose by 2.4% in July after seasonal adjustment.
• After seasonal adjustment, 8 of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Halifax (+4.9%), Hamilton (+4.4%), Vancouver (+3.9%), Toronto (+3.5%), Victoria (+1.6%), Winnipeg (+1.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.6%) and Edmonton (+0.3%). Conversely, prices fell in Quebec City (-1.2%), Montreal (-0.9%) and Calgary (-0.3%).
• From July 2022 to July 2023, the composite index fell by 1.9%, a smaller contraction than in the previous month. Price increases in Calgary (+3.3%), Halifax (+2.1%) and Quebec City (+1.1%) were more than offset by declines in Edmonton (-0.1%), Vancouver (-0.6%), Toronto (-2.1%), Montreal (-2.6%), Victoria (-2.7%), Winnipeg (-5.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-5.4%) and Hamilton (-7.9%).

From National Bank of Canada

The second quarter of 2023 saw housing affordability in Canada post a third consecutive improvement. While not as substantial as the previous two betterments, it still marked an advancement for 9 of the 10 markets covered. Taken together, the last three quarters represent a 7.1 percentage point decline for the mortgage payment as a percentage of income (MPPI). While that was a positive development, it pales in light of the 24.6pp worsening in affordability in the two previous years and only brings affordability back to levels last seen a year ago. The MPPI now stands at 59.3%, still way off the average since 2000 of 42.5%. The improvement mostly stemmed from a decrease in home prices. The latter declined 1.2% in the quarter which brings the cumulative decline over the last year to 8.1%. This pullback is the largest observed in a generation but could have bottomed out according to house price index data. The Teranet-National Bank Composite HPI rose 2.2% seasonally adjusted in June, and momentum is expected to continue into the third quarter on the back of strong demographics and a lack of supply in the resale market. Compounding that headwind, after providing marginal respite in Q2 (-3 basis points), mortgage interest rates in July have crept up on the back of further tightening by the Bank of Canada and should be detrimental to affordability in the next report. Moreover, the flip side of restrictive monetary policy is a weakening economic outlook. In such a high interest rate environment, we cannot count on significant wage gains to improve affordability, as we expect the labour market to cool in the second half of the year.

HIGHLIGHTS:

• Canadian housing affordability posted a third consecutive improvement in Q2'23. The mortgage payment on a representative home as a percentage of income (MPPI) declined 1.6 points, a further pullback following the 3.2-point decrease in Q1'23. Seasonally adjusted home prices decreased 1.2% in Q2'23 from Q1'22; the benchmark mortgage rate (5-year term) edged down 3 bps, while median household income rose 1.2%.
• Affordability improved in 9 of the ten markets covered in Q2. On a sliding scale of markets from best improvement to deterioration: Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa-Gatineau, Victoria, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary, Montreal, and Quebec. Countrywide, affordability improved 1.2 pp in the condo portion vs. a 1.8 pp improvement in the non-condo segment.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity and average home prices via Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations for 2023 and 2024.

As expected, national home sales came flying out of the gates in April 2023. Buyers who had been sitting on the fence responded to the twin signals of interest rates looking like they were at a top and property values hitting bottom.

With the Bank of Canada unexpectedly ending its pause on rate hikes in June and hiking again in July, a major source of uncertainty has returned to the housing market.

That said, even before the resumption of rate hikes, the recent sales rally had already shown signs of losing steam. The biggest month-over-month increase in sales activity was back in April, followed by an increase only half as big in May, then by a small 1.5% gain in June. This was likely because new listings had fallen to a 20-year low, which was reflected in month-over-month price gains in April, May, and June that were only bested by those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

New listings are now catching up to sales, although this isn’t expected to translate into further big gains in activity as some buyers will likely be moving back to the sidelines, as they did in 2022, to wait for additional signals from the Bank of Canada and the data it bases policy on. Looking further out, there’s also a growing consensus that rates will not just be higher, but likely for longer – well into 2024.

As a result, CREA has downgraded its forecast for home sales in 2023 and 2024 compared to its April 2023 outlook, along with the trajectory for prices. That’s not to say either are necessarily expected to return to declines on a month-to-month basis, but rather to stabilize or rise at a slower pace than they have in recent months.

Summary

• On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased 1.5% from May to June, a fifth consecutive monthly increase. However, this was a much smaller rise than the 4.6% in May and 11.1% in April, a slowdown that could have been induced by the additional tightening of the Bank of Canada.
• On the supply side, new listings jumped 5.9% in June, a third consecutive monthly increase.
• Overall, active listing increased marginally by 1.5% in Canada, keeping the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) unchanged at 3.1 in June. This continues to be higher than the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis.
• The active-listings to sales ratio is still tighter than its historical average in the majority of Canadian provinces, with only Manitoba indicating a ratio above average.
• Housing starts in Canada increased in June (+81.4K to 281.4K, seasonally adjusted and annualized), beating consensus expectations calling for a 220.0K print. This increase more than offset May's 58.9K decrease and was the sharpest ever. In urban areas, increases in housing starts were seen in Ontario (+50.2K to 116.8K), British Columbia (+24.9K to 63.6K), Quebec (+3.7K to 25.0K) and the Maritimes (+8.9K to 17.6K). Meanwhile, a decrease was registered in the Prairies (-5.5K to 39.2K) on gains in Saskatchewan (+4.6K to 6.7K) which were offset by losses in Alberta (-10.1K to 25.7K) while starts in Manitoba (-0.1K to 6.7K) remained essentially unchanged.
• The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 2.2% in June after seasonal adjustment. Nine of the eleven markets in the composite index were up during the month: Toronto (+2.9%), Vancouver +2.6%), Quebec City (+2.6%), Halifax (+2.3%), Calgary (+2.1%), Victoria (+1.9%), Montreal (+1.4%). Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.0%) and Edmonton (+0.2%). Conversely, prices fell in Winnipeg (- 0.2%), while remaining stable in Hamilton.

The Bank of Canada increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation. However, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services. Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient. After a surge in early 2023, China’s economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector. Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting. Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation.

The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects the global economy will grow by around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025. Canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand. Consumption growth has been surprisingly strong at 5.8% in the first quarter. While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy. In addition, the housing market has seen some pickup. New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices. In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%. Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing.

Underline

Strikethrough

sub_script

super^script

indent

blockquote here

left

center

right

justify justify justify justify justify justify justify justify justify justify justify justify justify justify justify justify