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CMHC: Canada’s housing supply shortages: moving to a new framework
From CMHC
Canada faces a housing affordability challenge. For many years, housing prices and rents in Vancouver and Toronto attracted attention from all over the world. Over time, these increases came to burden many Canadians and their children. Low-income and some middle-class households struggle to even find a place to live, let alone at a price they can afford.
On a wider scale, the productivity of the Canadian economy suffers from unaffordable housing as the capacity to attract skilled workers is diminished and the young are deterred from staying in our largest cities partly because of the lack of attainable housing. And Canadas enormous level of household debt creates a vulnerability in the event of a global economic crisis.
Preview of results
We find that housing starts need to double over the next decade. Compared to a projected rate of about 250,000 new housing units annually until 2035, Canada needs to increase housing starts to around 430,000 to 480,000 units per year to restore affordability (depending on parameters).
This can only be possible with:
a significantly greater workforce
more private-sector investment
changes in technology and productivity such as more automation and modular construction
The need to increase housing supply remains critical.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/accelerate-supply/canadas-housing-supply-shortages-a-new-framework
Statistics Canada: Quarterly rent statistics, first quarter 2019 to first quarter 2025
In the first quarter of 2025, Vancouver was the census metropolitan area (CMA) with the highest average asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment, at $3,170, followed by Toronto ($2,690), Victoria ($2,680) and Ottawa ($2,490). By comparison, Montral ranked 17th, with an average asking rent of $1,930. Smaller CMAs in Quebec recorded the lowest average asking rents, including Drummondville ($1,200) and Sherbrooke ($1,250).
Because prospective renters typically face higher rents compared with long-term tenantswhose rents reflect past leases and can also be subject to rent control regulationsasking rents offer a picture of current market trends.
Asking rents in Montral increased nearly 71% from 2019 to the first quarter of 2025
The CMAs of Drummondville and Sherbrooke, which had the lowest average asking rents in the first quarter of 2025 were those that saw the largest increase in average asking rents for two-bedroom apartments from the first quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2025. During this period, the average asking rent increased from $600 to $1,200 in Drummondville and from $660 to $1,250 in Sherbrooke.
Montral also experienced a marked increase in average asking rent from 2019 to the first quarter of 2025. Starting at $1,130 in 2019, asking rent in this CMA grew by 70.8% to reach $1,930 in the first quarter of 2025.
By contrast, the CMAs with the highest average asking rents experienced slower relative growth from 2019 to the first quarter of 2025. The Toronto CMA saw overall 5.1% growth in the asking rent of two-bedroom units, increasing from $2,560 in the first quarter of 2019 to $2,690 in the first quarter of 2025. Average asking rents in Toronto declined during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by an increase to reach a peak of $2,920 in the second half of 2023. In the first quarter of 2025, average asking rents subsequently decreased by 5.6% year over year in Toronto.
Vancouver followed a similar pattern as Toronto, although it experienced comparatively stronger growth. Average asking rent for two-bedroom apartments increased by 27.3% from the first quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2025 (from $2,490 to $3,170). In this CMA, average asking rents started increasing in early 2021 to reach a peak of $3,580 in the third quarter of 2023, then decreased by 7.8% from the first quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250625/dq250625b-eng.htm
Provincial Housing Outlook: Firmer Back Half of 2025 in the Cards for Canadian Housing
By TD Economics
Highlights
Weve modestly upgraded our home sales growth forecasts for the second half of the year across Canada. This represents the assumption that pent-up demand that was sidelined in a weaker-than-expected first half returns to the market. The data is cooperating with this narrative, with Canadian home sales up 4% m/m in May after inching higher in April. However, uncertainty remains elevated, and job markets are deteriorating. As such, even if sales levels improve, they are likely to remain subdued, particularly in B.C. and Ontario.
Weve nudged up our average home price growth forecasts in markets outside of B.C. and Ontario for the back half of the year, as sales gains interact with supply/demand balances that favour sellers in these regions. Were retaining our view that quarterly price growth will be the firmest in the Prairies in the second half of 2025.
In contrast, 2025H2 home price growth is seen as declining, on average, in B.C. and Ontario. Supply/demand balance indicators suggest that there is too little demand chasing too much supply in these markets, leaving buyers with some power in negotiations. We could see a compositional boost to prices (i.e. sturdier sales gains for more expensive properties that upwardly pressure average prices), particularly in Ontario, however. This reflects the assumption of some underperformance in the less-expensive GTA condo market due to weak investor demand.
Were expecting stronger growth in Canadian home sales and average home prices in 2026, backed by an improving economy, reduced uncertainty, and a modest downdraft in yields from their current levels. However, the scale of bounce-back in Canadian average home prices will likely be restrained by poor affordability in key markets like B.C. and Ontario. Whats more, population growth should remain weak next year, restraining rent gains and preventing any notable recovery in investor demand.
We expect the federal governments housing plan to boost supply. However, given that the federal budget will only land this fall, along with lags inherent in the homebuilding process, we wouldnt expect a material boost to housing completions until perhaps late next year (at the earliest). Absent a steep recession, any significant improvement in housing affordability would take time and require a sustained ramp up housing construction.
https://economics.td.com/ca-provincial-housing-outlook
