Chris Stewart

From CMHC High housing costs burden Canadians in many ways. Here, we concentrate on how these costs discourage Canadians from moving to better places to live and to the cities where they would like to work. Improving affordability will hence boost the productivity of Canadas economy. When choosing where to live and work, Canadians not only look at the wage increase they might get. They must be realistic about housing costs if they have to move to a new location. And they may give up on opportunities given by a new job that improves their skills and knowledge and hence the productivity of the country if they cant afford to cover the cost of housing after moving. Similarly, employers must pay more to attract highly skilled workers to their locations to cover those workers higher cost of living. This raises costs and lowers productivity. Changes in housing affordability across the country lead to knock-on changes for other cities. For example, our modelling suggests that were Toronto to double its housing starts over the next decade to address its own affordability challenges but without policy changes its population would be 3% greater than currently projected. Others, mostly from the rest of Ontario, would be attracted there. More generally, we find that a 1% increase in house prices in the destination city will make it less attractive and will lead to a decline in the number of people moving there of a little more than 1%. Cities need to understand the impacts of house prices across the country when planning for their own growth. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/blog/2025/high-housing-costs-making-harder-move-jobs-many-seeking

From CMHC Highlights Foreign trade risks and immigration changes add significant uncertainty to the outlook. We expect economic activity to be modest in 2025, picking up in 2026 and 2027. Housing starts will slow down from 2025 to 2027 mainly due to fewer condominium apartments being built but total starts will remain above their 10-year average. Rental apartment construction will remain high but may slow in 2027 as demand eases. Ground-oriented homes (detached, semi-detached, row homes) may recover slightly, especially in more affordable options like row houses. We expect housing sales and prices to rebound as lower mortgage rates and changes to mortgage rules unlock pent-up demand in the short term. In the longer term, stronger economic fundamentals will support this rebound. The recovery will be uneven, with slower progress in less affordable regions and in the condominium apartment market. Rental markets are expected to ease with higher vacancy rates slowing rent growth. Renter affordability will improve gradually, with more noticeable changes happening later in the forecast period. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook?utm_medium=emailutm_source=email-e-blastutm_campaign=2025-01-housing_market_outlook_2025